Dear GUNNER24 Traders,

 

US stock market view

 

As the two examples of the S&P 500 emini continuous future contract (ES #) and the NASDAQ-100 (QQQ ETF) show, the all-dominant annual supports are holding. Again..., and til today:

Above you find the daily ES # chart since major important Biden elect lows, showing a classic 3 Fib number GUNNER24 Down Setup starting at the so far alltime-high (ATH) and the most determining, nearest yearly support what is the by now likely 4 times TO THE T successfully backtested „Biden Elect Yearly Support". Think, the Biden support at yesterday low together and simultaneously with natural daily support of the Blue Arc triggered the hard rally from day low into day close. This yesterday course looks like a bullish Hammer Candle, what supports A) that combined support magnet formed by daily Blue Arc and yearly Biden Elect rail were able to form a small higher daily low pattern which in turn may be the main trigger for a new bullish upward cycle to begin yesterday, what may take the market THROUGHOUT to higher alltime-highs by the end of May, as I explained in detail within penultimate Sunday-Newsletter, using the YM # (Dow Jones emini) as an example. Click here on blue to study this view again.

On the other hand, one thing should be quite clear. If the market wants or has to close below the combined support magnet in the next few days, then it usually should drop for 2, 3 weeks or so like a stone into 2nd double arc support area. So please keep a close eye on this Biden Elect Yearly Support..., what at same time also works for the NASDAQ-100 index (QQQ):

 

In above daily QQQ case, we recognize carefully the Biden Elect Yearly Support is responsible yearly support for the so far year low, made early-March. Yesterday, at cemented low, the Blue Arc became confirmed future QQQ support. A stronger support and there obviously is a perfect sync between Biden Elect Yearly Support and Blue Arc, forming main bull market support magnet for the days to come. A close below that major support magnet is HEAVY short signal for the 2nd double arc downtarget and likely lower year lows to come!

With yesterday next small higher low we observe a starting point for a potential Head & Shoulders Top (SHS) forming with the Left Shoulder at the February highs and the Head at the April ATH`s and a possible symmetrical SHS finished at a 336$ or so for early-June or so.

Hmm..., because it should`t look so bad for the bulls, at least for the next few days, I would like to try a long in the Tech Stocks environment:

The 1:3-Trade: Buy Upstart at 123.00

Our 1:3 trades are A) adjusted to a longer term, having a spacious stop-loss for the development not to be endangered and B) have to show a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.

NASDAQ listed Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) operates a cloud- based artificial Intelligence (AI) lending platform. This platform aggregates consumer demand for loans in the range of 1000$ to 50000$ and connects it to its network of the company's AI- enabled bank partners. Its platform connects consumers, banks, and institutional investors through a shared AI lending platform. The company runs no credit checks; applying for a loan will not affect the customers credit score. Instead of relying upon the old way of a "credit score," Upstart management says it uses AI technology to analyze roughly 1600 data points in order to determine the credit risk. If the customer is approved for a loan, 99% of loans are made within 24 hours after signing. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

Upstart Holdings is very interesting December 2020 IPO because AI has huge potential to be the "next big thing", maybe even as important as the internet.

As daily technical life-time chart shows, the stock is in strong bull market since first notice. First day of notice made alltime-low (ATL):

 

 

Yesterday, UPST shares fired a for sure HEAVY buy signal as they rallied +13.42$/+11.23%. A little bit overdone advance for 1 day as there was no real news, but shares have closed far above the redlined, in the past 3 times negative confirmed ATH resistance. This line should have morphed to stronger future ATH support rail and there seems to be the Gentleman`s long entry point.

The downward oriented ATH rail runs from an around 123$ to 120$ or so for the coming days and into end of May. The May lows looking strong as they were bought heavily by the Institutional Crowd. The May lows very successfully have defendend the extra-highlighted on March, 18 torn Power Earnings Gap (PEG) magnet support, thus VERY LIKELY forming the next important higher bull market low. And well, a sealed higher bull market low usually triggers another strong upcycle what in this case should test back the current ATH environment in a very serious way at a minimum. Normally a higher bull market low sometime leads to higher bull market highs.

For the weekly chart I have two in the past solid working GUNNER24 Up Setups, both starting at the # 1 // 22.61$ // ATL. We expect the 165.00$ ATH resistance should be at least tested in this young weekly upcycle. Therefore, shortterm uptarget at 165.00$:

 

 

This is a weekly 10 Candle up, showing that the likely important higher bull market low of May 2021 is the 100% precise backtest of the 2*1 Gann Angle. A likely higher bull market low precisely triggered by an important Gann Angle support is perfect, strong bullish mass behaviour. So, usually this 2*1 Angle test triggered another weekly upcycle, what now should be in week # 2.

Watch it closely, that yesterday rally top, accurately found resistance at the lower line of 2nd double arc what might radiate stronger resistance and therefore the little bit overdone bullish action could retrace into the 120$-123$ Gentleman`s long-entry-pullback ATH support and the weekly „Support Angle" above, what is at 123$ for this and next trading week!

The very first weekly close above the 1st double arc will activate the coming test of the lower line of 2nd double arc what together with the Support Angle forms interesting future price/time upmagnet at the 180.00$:

==> The weekly 10 Candle GUNNER24 Up offers a main uptarget for UPST at 180.00$, sometime in course of August 2021!

We wish to go long UPST shares at 123.00$ support magnet until end of May. This classic 5 Fib number up, illustrates why there should unfold nearest future support what at same time seems to be most-ideal pullback target:

 

 

123$ to 120$ usually represents strong future weekly double support magnet formed by the upper line of 2nd, the future ideal arc backtest rail, and above discussed Support Angle backtest magnet!

 

The likely higher bull market low of May 2021 100% accurately made at 2*1 Life-time Support Angle at same time successfully tested the support of the lower line of 1st from above. ==> May 2021 low likely found big support at double life-time support magnet.

This week candle is very bullish so far and the somehow awaited/expected close above the 2nd double arc resistance environment usually should seal the backtest run into 3rd double arc main resistance upmagnet where the # 15-ATH spiked where it usually should.

IF this bull will be strong enough to deliver some weekly closings above the 3rd double arc main resistance or alternative is able to deliver a month close above 172$, the bull market should continue into the BIG „round" 200$ MAIN uptarget, above represented by the lower line of 4th G24 Uptarget Magnet!

==> Shortterm uptarget at 156.00$. Main uptarget at 180.00$. BIG MAIN uptarget at 200.00$.

= the 123$ to 120$ support magnet is the worked out Gentleman`s long-entry point of a perhaps started daily downer:

==> 1:3-Trade Buy-Limit order at 123.00$! This UPST-long attempt is valid til end of month = May 31!

Please place the SL at 112.00$!

Risk = 11.00$. Potential reward = 33.00$. Risk-reward ratio 11.00/33.00 or 1:3.00

GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 05/20/2021:

Market: Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

Orders: Buy-Limit at 123.00. Stop-Loss (SL) at 112.00. Shortterm uptarget at 156.00. Main uptarget at 180.00. BIG MAIN uptarget at 200.00. Buy-Limit order valid until 05/31/2021.

Pentecost Holidays - Next Trade of the Day on Tuesday, 25th of May

Tomorrow and Whit Monday no trade setup is e-mailed. I wish you all Happy and Relaxing Holidays! Next Trade of the Day setup is sent Tuesday 25!

 

Eduard

=========================================

 

I will merely analyze the market. There are so many instruments in the world outside our GUNNNER24 Traders use to trade, and hundreds of popular ones among them, often depending on a trader’s time horizons... I don’t consider me able to adjust the market recommendations to all the popular ETFs, different CFD or futures contracts. All I’ll analyze is pure market action - the index, stock or most current contract and forex!

 

The trade size you should use depends.

 

A) On your account size:

 

I usually follow the rule of thumb which says, never bet more than 1% of your account size for each trade. So I avoid overtrading...

Let’s say you have got a 30.000US$ account granting you a nominal buying power of 300.000US$ up to 500.000US$ and even more, depending on your broker and instrument. In that case your trade size shouldn’t be more than 3.000US$-5.000US$ taking into account your buying power.

 

Another - more conservative - method is taking into account the available margin. Usually, 30.000US$ account value equals 30.000US$ available for margin trading. So the trade size is 300US$ taking into account the margin.

 

Within Trade of the Day I ask you not to bet more than this 1% per any trade.

 

The other point to consider for determining the trade size is:

 

B) if your trading style is rather active, supposing you regularly have 30-50 open trades, just as I have - CFD/ETF, here some stocks, there a future contract. So I often trade risky somehow, but I split the money/bets. Even in such a nice trend as the stocks are showing currently, I never ever trade too risky. I never load the boat with 70% let 90% of my account size. 50% is the maximum.

 

I trade for my living and for my kids and wife as well. A regular income is important. The big-bang bet isn’t! The market would win such a big-bang bet for sure!! 

 

When I have a lot of open trades, maybe up to this 50% of my account size/available margin I avoid trading more. So if you are an active trader having a lot of trades running at rev limiter (50% account size) please avoid trading even though we/I give you some fresh recommendations, because this would rise YOUR risk!... During the test phase that happened frequently. We had 3-5 open trades sometimes and that’s why it’s elementary important that we/you have to use tight SL. Order management is absolutely crucial for Trade of the Day.

 

You’ll have to place really each and every order accordingly, you know. Forgetting only one time the SL would make this trade getting worse and worse…

 

========================================

 

 

Based on the George Douglas Taylor Trading Technique that I’ve been studied and originally traded for years transferring it onto the modern markets by constant observation a five day pattern of the single days of the week has resulted.

 

The crux is not so much that the entire week has to work perfectly. Perhaps it does just at a 50% because the day patterns may shift by one or two days. In the strong upwards trends sometimes you see 4 buy days and only 1 sell day. It’s important to recognize that the day proceeds ideally-typically and to trade accordingly.

My personal trading style has always been the contrary to that of the crowds because the crowds always loose. Especially in gold and silver trading I like to buy the corrections Monday to Wednesday and on Friday if the day patterns correspond with some important GUNNER24 Signals.

I use to go short intraday just on Thursday when the week high is sold off AND provided that the corresponding GUNNER24 Setups signal so covering the shorts when the cycle is resumed.

The ideal five day pattern in an upwards trend – precious metals and US stock market – Do use those patterns for your intraday and swing activities!

 

 

Monday: Buy day. Strong up-day. Low established first. It often ends at the day high. Unthinkingly you may buy all the intraday corrections because the week high comes later in the course of the week.

Tuesday: Buy day. Weaker up-day. A higher high is produced. As early as now the crowds ponder whether the prices mightn’t run too high partially going short already. For me it’s the day when I can cover my Friday and Monday longs. In intraday I try to go long in case of corrections until the Comex opening.

Wednesday: Sell day. Actually the day for covering the longs and for the first short entry. It’s got some different forms. It closes at the same level as it had opened. Frequently at first the high is established because more and more traders short the market. Here the longs fight against the shorts. You recognize that if many teeth, many nicks, many spike candles are to be seen in the chart. On Wednesday I use to do nothing. Only at a 20 to 30% the shorter hearts are pleased because during the whole day there’s only sell-off.

Thursday: The classical sell short day. Because the Wednesdays often close as they had opened the market participants have to cover their shorts because in the beginning the market runs quickly upwards…! And frequently they turn their positions into the high direction being caught on the wrong trail again. Then the market often lays down a beautiful sell-off. In the evening mostly a strong rally follows. That’s where we cover the shorts.

Friday: Classical buy day in the upwards trend. It’s nothing for weak hands. Here’s where you buy the positions near the Thursday lows which you cover again next Tuesday/Wednesday. If you discover that the prices have steadied or even are rising a little bit by closing the five day cycle should continue in the following week.

 

========================================