Last time we analyzed the US Small-Caps with the help of the IWM Russell 2000 Index ETF, I recommended to sell short the possible Double Top on the monthly chart.
W.D. Gann always recommended selling Double Tops in the higher time frames as they offer the best method of selling a market. The distance between Double Tops is important. The longer the distance the more important it is. Double Tops on yearly charts are the most important, then come the Double Tops on monthly and weekly base.
IWM ETF/Russell 2000 printed its Double Top on yearly base on November 9th. And as this Double Top 100% accurately tested a natural yearly GUNNER24 Resistance Rail from below and as the price was rejected hard from this resistance immediately afterwards, a nice opportunity arose that the final highs of the entire trading year 2020 came in there:
But the sell-short attempt failed, because instead of further reacting negative to the danger of a yearly Double Top and the then met and until then respected first square line resistance within the monthly IWM 31/32 Candles GUNNER24 Up, the bulls started a mighty rally and at finally printed 181.02$ November 2020 close have activated the above 1st double arc main uptarget resistance area which runs at the round 200$ number upmagnet to a 205$ for the first few months of 2021!
==> IWM ETF fired a new uptarget on yearly base what is at 200$ to 205$ and with a +85% probability will be hit sometime in course of winter 2021.
We should now urgently try to go long the small-caps as well as this party easily could continue into February next year.
Regarding the exact specifications of today's IWM long recommendation, we continue with the weekly chart and the two weekly GUNNER24 Up Setups developed therein.
First of all, let's have a look on the weekly GUNNER24 Up what is the most important one:
Setup is a classic 13 Fib number Candle GUNNER24 Up, starting to forecast at # 1 // 2020 Low. The 35th candle of the 2020 rally is a profit taking candle starting at year 2018 high environment and natural resistance of the 1st double arc. Since 35 - 1 is 34 Fib number and price at same time reached natural double arc resistance this combined time/price signal could have had the strength to print a Double Top on yearly base.
Instead the rally cycle negated the danger of a yearly Double Top and continued smoothly and the week # 37 of rally closed far and therefore decisively above the 1st natural double arc resistance what was another very strong buy signal on the weekly chart. This mighty buy signal was expanded with fresh higher rally highs the next higher weekly closings.
Remember the by November 2020 close activated monthly GUNNER24 Double Arc uptarget of 200$ to 205$ ...
In addition to this powerful buy signal on the monthly chart, there is now also a next mighty buy signal on the weekly chart!! ==> The outstanding strength of this rally clearly indicates that at some point in the near future the rally will reach and work off the newly activated upward target of the lower line of 2nd double arc. Possibly sometime during February 2021, then at a 204.00$ or so.
==> I recommend to open a long position IF it dips in course of the next 6 trading days into rally week No. 37 high support what is at 185.40$ and should represent nearest and at same time strongest weekly future IWM support.
To double-confirm these worked out rails/way points, we can use the following weekly GUNNER24 Up Setup. It is a classic weekly 5 Fib number GUNNER24 Up and starts its uptrend measurement a the very first successful test of the above 2*1 Support Angle, what is the most important = likely most strongest rally support on combined week low and weekly closing base and with a high degree of certainty will remain acting so well into the coming year 2021:
The at # 1-low and yearly support started rally leg for the coming trading week will be at week candle No. 13. The series of new highs and higher week closings strongly point to the outcome that the rally will continue into lower line of 3rd double arc what is nearest most important weekly uptarget above the 2nd double arc what is now met.
So the price reached another natural resistance environment and natural GUNNER24 Uptarget (2nd double arc) and this fact or this energy status allows that the daily rally cycle has to pause for some more days and we have to see some more profit taking what might test back the lower line of 2nd double arc what together with the former rally high at 185.44$ forms nearest and perhaps strongest weekly support magnet below the current 190.30$ for the next 2 due week candles.
We should buy a daily pullback continuation into a 185.40$ weekly support magnet also because the rally count, which starts at # 1 and yearly support above, allows for another important higher rally cycle low to be made in the course of the coming rally week 13 Fib number. This bullish time-event was last seen at the important higher rally low of the # 8-Fib number rally week...
==> Jumping the IWM long train at 185.40$ til December 21 is a relative low-risk Gentleman`s entry for the possibly due 205$ for the trading week February 8 – 12:
==> Within weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup this past week # 11-close is a normal strong GUNNER24 Buy Signal as the week closed visibly above the lower line of 2nd natural weekly resistance arc. This next buy trigger adds to the series of the above identified rally continuation signals and from the time perspective the rally what has begun at above # 1-candle could run for a textbook 21 Fib number trading weeks clycle – = trading week February 8-12 – and therefore is poised to hit the above lower line of 3rd weekly GUNNER24 Uptarget Resistance at a 205$ or so. What ALSO is in full sync to the fresh triggered 200$ to 205$ monthly uptarget range.
Please beware that the 205$ February 2021 uptarget magnet regarding time and price is a main uptarget resistance magnet for the coming trading year and therefore could have the resistance energy to print the final highs of 2021 there and then!
==> Please place the SL for IWM longs at a 181.10$!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann