Something like this can’t be called accidental any more. In the sporting world, immediately they would engage some doping inspectors. In consequence of these occurrences, the worldwide media would have to go to the barricades starting extensive inquiries, screaming "crucify and hang the sinners". At the same time they would spread over the air, print, twitter and comment.

In the biggest market of the earth – our financial centers – it is but a minor side issue, directed again and again with impunity by eerily strong trusts. I consider it as terrible that the like of it is generally tolerated, socially acceptable being swept under the carpet by media, banksters, politicians, the rich and powerful ones. They are mobsters, crooks and cheaters, I say. In the unlikely case the blatant market manipulations can be/want to be proved, they are low-penalized, mostly after years and years… The money fines are too low to hurt, forked out of the petty cash with a depreciatory sneer…

What I’m bearing upon concretely are those truly ominous sell-offs respectively the start of hefty sustainable downswings at the CME+CBOT+COMEX+NYMEX commodity futures markets, directly controlled by the FED and the US government during the typically low-volume days over the holidays. Since the 2011 silver all-time high including hefty reversal/exhaustion at Easter 2011, such a performance of commodities that are under the absolute US diktat seems to be increasingly more rule than exception.

Especially now over Thanksgiving it is conspicuously to be made out: Extraordinarily strong trend moves under a rather high volume in gold, silver, platinum, crude + Brent oil, US copper but also NatGas and many more. Before that, the day after Labor Day 2014, some brutal downswings in the raw-material sector were put out. At the beginning of September, above all the precious metals were struck, but also in oil, it came to a Labor Day sell-off under rather high hiliday volume. The lasting result was a terrible September in the mentioned commodities.

In addition it is obvious, that around the holidays important turns are allowed to start (for instance important gold, silver and platinum lows by the year-ends of 2012 and 2013, an important crude-oil low at the year-end 2013). For example, the US High Grade Copper produced its year high 2014 on 01/02/2014 at 3.44$. Since then, it has been falling continuously.

==> Since 2011, over the US holidays and other Christian oriented holidays – so can be stated and generalized universally – hefty downswings and also important changes in the downtrends are put out.

==> Over the holidays, with relatively low capital expenditure and without much opposition by counterparts – predominantly they are on vacation respectively they are taking their well-deserved trading pause – thereby pretty riskless it is possible to put out sustainable and lasting trend moves. By whom ever launched, the main point is that we realize and respect this pattern.

Let’s go now to the chart-technical effects of the Thanksgiving disaster. For today, I decided to consider only crude oil, US High Grade Copper and silver. All 3 together put into a pan, contemplated and analyzed result in an exquisite global-economic-downturn indicator showing us where the deflation spiral is directing AT LEAST in terms of time in 2015 (time factor).

Explicitly, I utter the term "disaster", since at these 3 important global-economic-downturn signalers in unison and just up to the important November closing were being pressed and thus, sustainable trend-confirming signals on monthly base were being timbered again into the chart.

Now it is clear that for all 3 of them a flawless downtrend year 2014 will be present because all three will close near their respective lows!!

==> This leads to the inevitable consequence that for all 3 in 2015 further weakness is preprogramed and for 2015 many further lows on monthly base are cemented.

==> Today, I suppose that no significant change may start before ALL 3 TOGETHER, I mean about simultaneously within 2015, reach their downtargets of their respective downtrends in terms of price, now absolutely confirmed.

I analyzed crude oil together with copper in respect of the threat of an imminent global economy meltdown by the middle of August 2014. In the GUNNER24 Forecasts 11/09/2014, I updated the imminent disaster for oil, inter alia suggesting that each break of the 1*1 Support Angle in the dominating monthly 3 Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup would lead to a panic sell-off, thus perforce having to be attained the minimum target at 60$:

 

 

The marked November closing price below the 1*1 Support Angle will lead to the 60$ to be reached and fallen short at the latest in January 2015.

 

Update of the deflation indicator number 1:

 

 

The 1*1 Support Angle break in November is unambiguous. This break has newly activated strong downforces. Thereby, another touch with the upper line of the 2nd double arc becomes compellingly necessary now. The upper line of the 2nd was responsible for the final 2009 bear-market low (green circle) triggering the last uptrend on monthly base that finally topped out in 2011 (blue circle). Now, oil is on its way to test the upper line of the 2nd again (orange circle). The final break of the important support of the first double arc this summer (black circle) activated the upper line of the 2nd as downtarget. The 1*1 break now in November 2014 newly confirmed the upper line of the 2nd as important target of this downtrend.

Regarding the timing of the moment when the upper line of the 2nd is due, I have to state the following: Since the break of the 1*1 Support Angle just only a couple of days have passed. The down power that arose from the break of the 1*1 is gigantic beind suppost to last at least three, probably even 5 more weeks!

I think that the upper line of the 2nd might thoroughly be reached till year-end 2014 = 58.50. At the latest in January 2015 however, it will be reached and worked off, quoting then a little higher at 59.70! Technically, crude oil is supposed to end the year 2014 very near to its lows. It may actually close at about 60$.

Since the year 2015 will have to produce lower downtrend lows we may really expect that the upper line of the 2nd will break downwards in the course of 2015. Then, the Support Angle, visible in the chart above, will become the next important downtarget. Depending on the moment when the upper line of the 2nd will fall on monthly closing base, the Support Angle will be reached and worked off in spring 2015 at 51.70 respectively by summer/autumn of 2015 close to 45$.

As crude oil, because of the season, typically marks often a significant low in January, we should really work on the assumption that the upper line of the 2nd will hold in December 2014 and January 2015 on monthly closing base, taking place a several month weak upswing = countertrend up to the 1*1 Angle, then for spring 2015 monster resistance at about 70$, before then a further tightening of the downtrend will be rung in that will afterwards work off the 45$ downtarget till August 2015 – green arrow course.

If December-February closes below the upper line of the 2nd, the panic-move will last further and the 45$ will be worked off until March/April 2015.

The next important December 2014 support is the horizontal at 62.40. It may lead to the start of an 8 to maximally 10 days lasting countertrend that is likely to lead at most to 69-69.50. From there and then, a new strong downswing is supposed to begin that will fall below the 60$ mark reaching the upper line of the 2nd.

 

Combined with crude oil, with the Thanksgiving heart shot copper likewise produced a powerful sell signal on monthly base. With the break of the 3$ horizontal support it revealed its true intentions for 2015, now finally and clearly:

 

 

In the valid 9 candle up, we can pick up optically what kind of long lasting consequences to copper and thereby to the global economic downturn the Thanksgiving disaster will have.

Since the bull-market top in February 2011 copper declined. Since mid-2012, more or less controlled it has been following the upper line of the 1st double arc downwards. At the beginning of 2014, for the first time it tested intensely the 1*1 Bull Market Angle as well as the first square line support – this one repeatedly – at 3$. All in all, we can count 8 tests of the 3$ horizontal.

By the November course, the 3$ mark, the first square line support was pulverized!

In September 2014 a massive sell signal emerged already because the 1*1 Bull Market Angle was broken on monthly base. Thereby, in September 2014 the 2*1 Main Support Angle was activated as the next important downtarget for this trend. The final break of the 3$ horizontal now confirms the 2*1 Main Support Angle again.

At what moment the 2*1 Main Support Angle might be reached?

By all means, December will work off the lower line of the first double arc. This one is at 2.75$. The 2.75 are thereby the first target. Afterwards it depends on the question whether the lower line of the first on yearly base holds. If in December it withstands the new downleg that just started accelerating there will be a good chance that the entire year 2015 takes a course approximately the way sketched in the chart as red course ==> in that case, supported by the 1st double arc, copper might come upon the downtarget in fall 2015 at 2.35-2.40 beginning the a sustainable up leg on monthly base.

If December 2014 closes below 2.72$ however, an bounce at the 2*1 Main Support Angle at 2.25$ is to be reckoned with as early as February 2015. I even think that a single weekly close below 2.72$ in December would be enough to activate finally the 2.25 downtarget till February 2015.

Copper won’t be able to escape from the enormous lasting down pressure that crude oil is exerting. It is supposed to fall until the last trading day of 2014 delivering a flawless downtrend year. Remember!! ==> The absolute year high was made the very first trading day of the year 2014 at 3.44$. Now, copper is most likely to form its yearly low 2014 the last trading day of the year!!!

The effects for silver will be correspondingly negative. Silver will march the way copper goes…, an ancient trading rule. Accordingly silver – ergo gold as well – is likely to make the absolute low of the year just shortly before year-end – as it did already in 2012 and in 2013 - , maybe again on the exactly last trading day 2014. Not before that a substantial countertrend would be possible/allowed, à la beginning of 2013 and beginning of 2014:

 

 

Until Thanksgiving, everything was beautiful and even a little hopeful. Then, silver was trading around 16.40$. The Friday sell-off and the related November close smashed every hope for more. Again, silver delivered a red candle that as well closed near the current downtrend lows. That implies a trend continuation and thereby lower lows in December, thus a downtrend year that is again preparing lower lows for 2015. The December support of the lower line of the 2nd double arc is at 15.25. Perhaps this one will be broken downwards on daily closing base as early as next week. This outcome permits a brutal continuation of the Thanksgiving heart shot. A December close below the lower line of the 2nd may be expected. If December will close below 15$ = probability more than a 70%!! the 13.10 would be due. For me it’s a logical maturity!

If silver wants to join copper again, in 2015 as well – there is a high probability after all that copper will decline rather moderately and steadily through the fall 2015 till it reaches its main downtarget at 2.35-2.40 – silver should/might copy that decline in terms of price and time. In that case, not before late summer/fall 2015 it may form a substantial bear market low at about 10.80$.

 

For the possible silver 10.80$ bear trend low watch fundamental GUNNER24 Forecasts, 11/09/2014, analysis:

 

 

Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann