The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is a private, open-ended trust that is invested exclusively in bitcoin and derives its value solely from the price of bitcoin. It enables investors to gain exposure to the price movement of bitcoin without the challenge of buying, storing, and safekeeping bitcoins. The Trust's sponsor is Grayscale Investments, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. The Trust will not generate any income and regularly sells/distributes bitcoins to pay for its ongoing expenses. Therefore, the amount of bitcoin represented by each share gradually declines over time.
Then I projected that GBTC/bitcoin has to test it`s so far 5 times confirmed, meanwhile rising yearly support arc sometime mid-November to early December 2019 at about 8$-7.70$ before this Big Support Rail should launch the next powerful monthly upcycle in which the price should be able to reach a 17$ (= 38.2% Fib retracement of 2018 altlime-high to 2019 Low range), and even the 25$ level (= 61.8% Fib retracement) in the course of the year 2020:
OR ==> GBTC/bitcoin would be a very strong buy into 2020 IF 8.00$ to 7.70$ is getting tested mid-November to early December 2019!
OR ==> only the next test of the above and below in the weekly candlestick chart dark-green highlighted almost perfect circular arc whose center is defined by the all-time high (ATH) and the time and price of the 2019 low can be the trigger for ending the ongoing downtrend since the year's high
Well, about a month later we head towards end of November and now it looks like GBTC is approaching it..., ... its FINAL DESTINATION:
GBTC/bitcoin intensified it`s current running daily downtrend cycle and closed at 9.27$, and so it trades just 1.50$ above its annual support arc and about 50 cent above the thin dark-green dotted rising support line which represents 2019 main support until today. During Friday this support was violated for the very first time, but market was able to defend it and close above on weekly base.
The weekly downtrend that started at # 1 // lower 2019 High is now at week # 20 and I expect the test of the annual support arc soon, perhaps sometimes in course of downtrend weeks # 21 Fib number, at latest some times in course of # 22 what is 21 Fib number + 1.
Then it would be ideal to finish the correction in terms of time, since the upward trend from 2019 Low to 2019 High run for exactly 21 Fib number week candles and for the correction afterwards, it would be textbook perfect to finish it also after a 21 Fib number time period.
Most ideal, of course, at the first backtest of the annual support arc in course of this year 2019.
For the pending downtrend weeks # 21 and # 22 the yearly support arc is around the 7.70$ and IF price indeed is able to test annual arc support until December 12th we should enter a long position until then and there for the first important 2020 uptarget what is near the 17$ or 38.2% Fib retracement of 2018 alltime-high to 2019 Low range. That would also be a monthly uptrend that would test back 2019 high surroundings in a very very serious way.
Additionally within 10/13/2019 "Go ahead, Bitcoin, make my day", I have analyzed this still valid 13 Candle weekly up that starts measuring to the upside at final 2019 Low, what was printed in course of February:
Then GBTC first was expected to bounce into 11.20$ triple GUNNER24 Resistance Upmagnet within weeks, followed by the hard drop or sell-off into 8$-mid November/early December 2019 quadruple support magnet, formed by first square line, 1st double arc, annual arc support and 2019 1*1 Bull Angle, what is always most important natural bull support and an ideal backtest magnet within an overall strong uptrend.
And it happened that way. At least over a little detour:
Rather than immediately filling back the important 2nd double arc upmagnet resistance, first the 1st double arc was successfully tested back at # 16-spike low. Only the # 18-top found tough resistance at a weekly triple resistance magnet, followed by the current running next sell-off in the weekly chart, which still respects thin red-dotted downtrend resistance which is pressing lower...
# 18-top is very negative looking "Kiss of Death" backtest of 2*1 Resistance Angle, so it would be quite normal that 2019 1*1 Bull Market Angle will be tested soon or will be worked off quickly.
Please remember, that after such a strong uptrend the bitcoin delivered during the first half of 2019 the/a backtest of usually strongest uptrend support is always quite usual stuff.
1*1 Angle is always very attractive price magnet, and form time to time it is simply necessary that the uptrend must confirm it`s main support, only to continue later the uptrend with full force in most cases
The last nail in the coffin for the awaited backtest of yearly arc support and 7.70$ quadruple GUNNER24 Support Magnet likely will be the final downward break of the thin dark-green dotted support line what still radiates most important weekly support.
The very first daily close below that weekly support line could trigger a panic cycle on daily base so that 7.70$/ # 21/22 time/price downmagnet could be reached and worked off quite exactly in time. (Panic cycles in the daily time frame tend to last 7 to 12 trading days)
At around 7.70$ and for the now pending downtrend weeks # 21 to # 22 the yearly support arc, the first square line and the so far 1x successfully tested 1st double arc environment and the 2019 1*1 Bull Market Angle form quadruple year 2019 support magnet what usually should be strong enough to end A) the 2019 downcycle and B) trigger a multi-month long rally cycle which usually should test back 17$ sometimes in course of spring 2020.
==> This downtrend has MAJOR downtarget at 8.00$ to 7.70$! Target work off of most strongest future 2019 support magnet could come true until December 6th.
==> Please buy GBTC at 7.70$ quadruple 2019 GUNNER24 Support Magnet IF getting tested until December 6th!
==> Midterm uptarget is 17.00$/spring 2020!
The SL for this possible low risk-big reward long attempt should be set at 6.20$.
Enjoy and be prepared!
Eduard Altmann