For the second consecutive Friday, we saw wild short-coverings of the gold- and silver-bears with extremely high volumes.

True to the motto "buy the rumor", the bears had to cover because the Deutsche Bank proclaimed on Friday afternoon that the Swiss gold referendum would have good chances to get a pass because of the considerable likelihood for a Yes.

Hmm. In fact, the big banking houses seem to have managed again to release market movements they will profit by ongoing – into one direction as well as into the other later on.

Do still you remember the course taken by the manipulated Scottish independence campaign last summer?! The FTSE 100 was at the all-time high. Then started going around the reports that the Scottish independence campaign might be crowned by success, Inter alia they were launched by the big banks, supported by the media and hashed over and discussed by many websites/analysts/ bloggers. For weeks, the FTSE 100 went down mightily in the course of the rumor mill… Of course, the Scottish Yes vote could NEVER have been a success. It was for sure from the beginning. Likewise, the current Swiss gold referendum has never got a chance for getting a pass… You’ll get the explanation a couple of paragraphs below…

Well, after the Scots voted No, the FTSE 100 naturally went up again, sitting tight below the all-time highs now.

Thereby, the Big Boys first profited by the decline they had floated. Later on, after the final No to the Scottish independence, they profited by the fact that the FTSE 100 had to pick up after all. They changed to the long side lining their pockets richly in the sequel.

In the present case of the Swiss gold referendum, they now spread the hope of this referendum to be accepted leading to sweeping changes in the gold market = sustainably rising gold price etc. in case of a Yes vote.

Hey, how blind do people have to be to believe this buzz?!! First of all, the Deutsche Bank is absolutely incompetent in any field. I am German. So I know them very well, and I’ve been concerned with them for decades. They use to be kidding many clients, pointedly and planned, exploiting them over the decades, again and again, with no end.

Being Germans, how can they be so bold as to say something about Switzerland and the sentiment there? If at least the manipulation attempt had been launched by a Swiss Bank… well, but the Deutsche Bank is an important player in the gold and silver market after all… The one who comes first around the corner with a pack of lies earns most…

Furthermore: What kind of a ballot is it the gold-bugs and gold-bears are supposed to believe now? Actually it was the Swiss television that ordered the current poll… again the media are in a boat with the big banking houses… and again we traders and investors will be hoaxed… This time however gold is affected that seems to be hiked up till shortly before the polls that will take place on November 30.

At least, now we have the latest deadline how long the current gold- and silver- suckers rally may last: Until 12/01/2014. Since the Swiss people will get out of the polling spot with a No, at the latest from then on the decline down to the 1100 may begin through year-end 2014.

==> I still owe you an answer why the Swiss people will vote with a No:

Lasting changes/alterations are reached only by nations who go to the street demonstrating and looking for open fight. Nowadays as well as in the past, they have to employ weapons to persist against their governments, to achieve changes. Successful examples in 2014 are the Russians. Crimea + East Ukraine. Who rebels fighting will obtain alterations. Changes of scheming, fraudulent systems are only attained by those who attacks and struggle playing hardball.

A cross doesn’t carry through anything. Can you remember that your cross on the ballots has ever moved or changed anything in hindsight? Those who count the crosses determine the present and future course for the citizens and electors. Those who know best how to manipulate the ballot machines will change and rule the world nowadays. Only the nations who shoot arrows through apples will forge ahead.

There is nothing to say against the Swiss people in general. They are simply too old in average, too rich, too mature to put their crosses to the system-changing place by a majority. The Scots had their opportunity. They could have moved the entire financial world and themselves for the better. Nations have to be in a painful acuteness to really be willing to change the world and themselves however. The Swiss citizens have got the best and most ancient democracy of the world. I envy them for their possibilities to intervene directly in the system. Yet, because of their laziness and satiety, this time as well a nation will act true to the motto "Never change a running system!".

Let’s go now concretely to the current gold sucker countertrend rally: Where should it be to top out? When will gold be able to start declining under the motto "Sell the facts"? For that, let’s have a look at both currently most important gold GUNNER24 Setups. With their help, I think the target area for the bounce is to be narrowed relatively for sure.

Gold, daily down setup:

 

 

From the important July high, a first 5 day initial down impulse has formed forecasting important future magnets. The downtrend was mercilessly strong not finding its low before the support of the 5th double arc on 07/11. At the low, the trend dipped into the lines of the 5th for a short time. The day of the low, Friday before last, bounced upwards from the support of the 5th double arc with high volume. Since the downtrend low the 5th double arc hasn’t been tested back yet. Such is often a feature of a bounce within the overall trend that is obviously down after all.

We realize that a GUNNER24 Horizontal delivers support on daily closing base at 1140. This means that in case of a first daily close below 1140 the run to the 1100 will be likely to have begun!

Last week the 1148, an important monthly GUNNER24 Horizontal Support, was tested several times. Besides, also the 1148 is now daily closing base support. It means that in case of a first daily close below 1148 the 1140 will be supposed to be tested.

The last rebound from the 1148 and the test of the Support Angle on Friday led to both important resistances to be disrupted A) 1172 = important monthly GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance und the 1180 that now in fact is yearly resistance. The 1180 held in the whole year 2013 and till September 2014 after all. October 2014 brought the 1180 on monthly closing base thus activating the 1100 as the next important GUNNER24 Gold Downtarget in the monthly time frame. About the activated downtarget, please mind the GUNNER24 Forecasts of 11/02/2014.

Friday, the 6th day of the bounce achieved a close above the pretty narrow, greatly powerful 1172-1180 resistance area. Well, it takes more than a swallow to make a summer. Even though last week closed clearly above the 1180 seemingly thereby re-conquering the 1180 on weekly base, I think that the 1180-1172 area is still sustainable resistance, gold being allowed to trade above it only for a certain time, hence temporally limited. An intense fight for this important pivot area is simply necessary to clarify finally whether 1172-1180 keeps meaning resistance or it wants to mutate to an important support.

Please, pay very exact attention now to the close of last Friday. It is (how can it be different?)… no more sarcasm (!) TO A T on the 1*1 Resistance Angle that is still delivering resistance as long as it is not re-conquered on daily closing base. As long as gold is quoting below the 1*1 Angle it will be in the bearish half of the down setup. Thus the trader/investor should prefer short-entries. If gold quotes above the 1*1 Angle, in the bullish half of the down setup, long-entries will have to be looked for. With the Friday close, the price is exactly on the 1*1 Angle however. Thereby gold absolutely denied finalize a decision whether it keeps on going up or it has to go back for the time being on Monday to test back the 1180-1172 area.

But since the Monday opening is likely to be above the 1*1 Resistance Angle – if gold opens unchanged at 1187.90 or higher – it seems that gold will skip over this important resistance in terms of time.

When time skips over a price resistance – in this case an extremely important one (watch all the past action at the orange ovals) – at least on Monday till maybe Tuesday gold is supposed to be backed by up-forces leading to new bounce highs. This theory is indirectly confirmed by the current count.

To the time: Since the low 6 days have passed, and the 6th day of the bounce marked a higher high than the 6th day of the bounce. Thus, adducing the important next higher Fibonacci numbers, the bounce is likely to go on at least two more days = 8 days, then topping – or not topping out before or around the 13th day. The 13th day of the bounce will be 11/25. I strongly doubt this bounce to go on longer than 13/14 days before a new powerful downtrend on daily base with target 1100 starts.

 

Let’s go to the price target of the current bounce that is supposed to last either 8 or about 13/14 days. For that, we consult the initial up impulse that arose at the bottom of the downtrend. At the low, the weakest of all the possible up impulses in terms of time has developed. We’ll observe just one 1 candle initial up impulse:

 

 

 

As a rule, first impulses with a duration of 1 or 2 time units are always feature of an imminent countertrend move that tops out A) mostly either at the first square line of B) at the 1st double arc. Rarely such up-impulse produce bounces that go on to the 2nd double arc.

In GUNNER24 Terms, Friday was a double buy-candle = it means, in one go the Blue Arc resistance and the upper line of the first square (now daily support at 1177.50) was overcome on daily closing base. The lower line of the 1st double arc is now next higher target on daily base. The lower line of the 1st takes course at 1199 until Tuesday. This is the minimum target for the bounce. But also the 1203 = upper line of the first may be possible because also the 1200 (round magnet) should be worked off if 1199 is target, and as soon as prices above 1200 are reached, also the upper line of the first could be worked off fast, according to the rules.

I think, the 1199 respectively 1203 should be worked off until Tuesday, the 8th day of the bounce. Then, gold will be allowed to decline. But the time makes possible respectively allows that gold is backed by up-forces for 13 days. Possible scenarios after the 1199/1203 are worked off are thereby that gold will consolidate for several days at the first double arc surroundings between 1199/1203 and the 1172 leaving this consolidation zone downwards at the 13th/14th day of the bounce.

Alternatively, at the 7th to 10th day of the bounce gold clearly succeeds in closing above the 1207 points. In this case it will be supposed to be able to reach the 1222 till the 13th/14th day of the bounce. The 1222 are not only the next higher GUNNER24 Monthly Resistance above the important 1172 magnet (watch GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 03/02/2014), but they offer themselves as bounce high target in the daily 1 candle up above, since the 1222 reside at the lower line of the 2nd double arc environment, clearly visible for all of us, by the perhaps 13th day of the bounce.

 

You best register with our GUNNER24 Gold Trader now. That’s where we oversee the optimal entries and exits for you. Especially in the difficult market situations where many factors have to be considered the Gold Trader is backed by the additional GUNNER24 Signals based on the combined 1, 4 and 8 hour setups to catch the optimum entries and exits.

 

 

 

Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann