It has been quite a while since I was able to find anything positive on the silver charts. Now, however, it is probably the case that the white metal has now marked its final low for the year and thus a next stronger upward movement in terms of time and price should be in the offing.
For today's analysis, I use the SLV ETF because, in contrast to the futures market, a quite wonderfully clear upward magnet = natural attraction is identifiable:
The long downtrend what started at January # 1 // 27.98$ // final 2021 High reached its cycle low on September 29th at a 19.83$ and in the course of the 35th downtrend week.
Cause this is a cycle fully oriented to the exceptionally important high 34-Fib number and the downtrend week # 35-lows obviously have defended the yearly 20.45$ horizontal support rail at least on weekly closing base again, I can report that the # 35-downtrend low, at same time the absolute yearly low of the SLV ETF, was a price/time event where the time factor married with the price factor (yearly horizontal main support) and this should thus form the launching pad for at least a tradable, somewhat longer lasting countertrend, which is now very slowly getting into gear.
It looks like that the year low at least should have triggered a 9 to 14 weekslong countertrend.
But of course, a much more bullish picture could emerge from the year-to-date low. Namely, a truly sustainable upward cycle that in the course of the coming months wants/needs to approach the 2020 and 2021 highs at the 27$-28$ yearly main resistance horizontal again.
So far, the ongoing weekly countertrend looks strong. Next week it will be at weekly candle # 7 and this week spike low strongly suggests that the SLV uptrend printed its first important higher low at this week # 6-lows and thus will first seriously attack the so far uptrend highs at 22.98$ as early as next week and usually should even surpass them by a wider margin thereafter.
Please watch carefully above that the 40-week MA (Moving Average) could be the ideal backtest resistance upmagnet for a maybe 9 to 14 weekslong countertrend cycle.
Above is the daily SLV chart for 2021. Silver is in confirmed uptrend on a daily and weekly base, as it was strong enough to close simultaneously above the stubborn, well-confirmed 4-month Downtrend Line and the 50-day MA, followed by the classic amd very successful backtest of the 50-day-MA at this week`s printed weekly spike low.
By this week spike lows an inverted Head-and-Shoulders (SHS) bottom has set up. Which can lead to the outomce that the coming week will be a really very bullish week for silver and to a lesser extent for gold too!
We recognize how important the 50-day MA support is for SLV, and since there is an official, retested confirmed 50-day MA buy signal, the future backtest of the extremely important future 200-day MA resistance rail is active!
As if by coincidence, the activated 40-week MA countertrend main uptarget and the activated 200-day MA uptarget unite near the same price at the 23.50$ surroundings in a few weeks.
==> Therefore, a very important upside target of this SLV-countertrend is the combined 23.50$ chart technical resistance upmagnet! It might be hit within next 5 weeks! And if silver is in a very good mood, it can even be reached in the course of the coming week!
On a weekly basis, this 9 Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup formed after the # 1 // 27.98$ // year high.
With its help, we can foresee that for the next few weekly candles, at the activated 23.50$ uptarget environment forms excellent confirmed annual resistance:
Watch, how naturally also the in the meantime perfectly confirmed 1st double arc support energy kicked in at year lows and at the 35th downtrend week price/time event. In the meantime this 1st double arc is 4 to 5 times successful retested rising weekly main support area on both on weekly closing base and week low base and of course a first future weekly closing price below this 1st double arc support area will trigger a very strong official sell signal on the daily & weekly charts.
This 1st double arc support energy united with the existing 20.45$ support horizontal energy close to the annual lows. Or, an extremely solid combined support was achieved at year lows and this energy state is a main reason why there is a nice chance that the highs of 2020 and 2021 must be aimed in the course of the coming months!!
But one thing at a time.
First of all, the future main resistance of the downward oriented „Yearly Resistance Angle" should be approched again within even days, resp. within a few weeks. This yearly resistance rail was responsible for the major important lower downtrend highs, highlighted with the fat dark-red resistance oval.
That is why the „Yearly Resistance Angle" is a quite natural, but extremely important backtest upmagnet for this SLV ETF countertrend in course of December!, and since the 40-week MA & the 200-day MA unite at the 23.50$ together with this well-confirmed negative downtrend rail on yearly base we know that the 23.50$ forms a shortterm natural MAJOR resistance magnet for the SLV ETF, so that it should actually bounce off it hard if met at then second test and SLV should drop back to the 1st double arc main support again (first the dark-green arrow path, then the dark-red arrow guess)!
But be careful dear silver bears: We are now aware that the „Yearly Resistance Angle" forms usually stronger future main resistance on weekly closing base and week high base. Conversely, this also means that an extremely bullish signal will be triggered if the SLV ETV manages to hold above the „Yearly Resistance Angle" until the end of the year.
==> A possible year-end close above the „Yearly Resistance Angle" could mean a rare buy signal on yearly base. If this were to happen, the serious backtest of the highs reached in 2020 and 2021 would be officially activated.
==> I recommend to buy SLV ETF at tomorrows open for the yearly 23.50$ triple resistance upmagnet target what might be hit in course of next week, but is awaited to be worked off at latest during December!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann