S&P 500: Ready to rock - Ready to roll

 

The advances of the US stock markets since the October lows are impressive and broad based. Dow Jones, Dow Transports, S&P 500, Russell 2000-Small Caps, as well as the Mid Caps and the NASDAQ indexes have been booming to a considerable extent from 10/03 lows. Since the end of an about 3-month consolidation phase/correction is triggered on 10/03, we're allowed to assume that the uptrends begun then are likewise going to persist during 2 to 3 month candles, at least.


==> For the indexes referred to as above, thereby the final highs of the current bull cycles won't be due before LATE-December, at the earliest. Yet the upcycle highs are much, much more likely to be expected by mid-January through the beginning of February 2020.


In today's issue, using the example of the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract (ES #), I would like to predict the presumable further course and waves of the US stock markets until the end of this truly historic 2019 rally year.


First of all, we need to put in front the technical weekly chart, which nicely reflects the ongoing health of this still powerful looking and behaving 10-year long secular bull market, before we bring the weekly developments in correlation to the GUNNER24 Forecasting System.


The S&P 500 – together with the NASDAQ indexes, succeeded in firing an important and sustainable buy signal by this week close:

 

 

==> Weekly Buy Signal! The second highest weekly close ever left the almost perfect circular shaped yellow influence magnet finally to the upside. The fresh breakout is confirmed by bullish momentum.


This yellow influence magnet represents a possibility to visualize the last correction phase regarding price and time. And from a 2 to 3 months lasting correction, followed by an upward resolution concludes that an uptrend is on the way which should be good to continue until the end of the year.


And that has to deliver new all-time highs ..., consequently and finally. MACD histogram and MACD lines are in confirmed bull mode, pointing to far higher prices for some more weeks and even months until critical overbought levels are reached!


For the time being, this weekly buy signal is activating now a new alltime-high (ATH) and the 3060 pts area at unusual attractive ATH rail to be reached quite swiftly now.


Wednesday is 30th of October. Thursday, 31th is last trading day of the month. This together with first days of the new November, forms interesting time window for printed higher ATHs at or near 3060 = ATH rail & highest monthly close ever and perhaps best time indicator when this daily and weekly uptrend needs a next pullback or a longer break.


I`m getting more and more convinced that the early-October lows have been next higher important monthly lows within 2019 rally year cycle and at these early-October lows the so called „year-end rally" began.

 

 

Above, you see the currently most determining GUNNER24 Market Setup of the ES # in the weekly time frame. It's a classic 5 Fib number Candle up that begins at the attained 2018 Xmas Low.


This 2018 Xmas Low is the next higher important bull market low and the spring board for the anticipated 2019 rally year.


Please remember that a so-called "Rally Year" pattern prints its absolute price low very early in the year and delivers its final highs very late in the time window. In between, there is an price increase of 12 to 20%, or higher.


Within the free GUNNER24 Forecast, issue 08/25/2019 "US Stock Market Pullback Target", among other things I presented to you the GUNNER24 Up Setup in the weekly chart above, subsequently – most intensively – going into the possible consequences, signals on hand and existing uptargets contingent upon this setup.


Then the last important point of change = important low for the index was the final summer low of this year which which is highlighted in the chart above with the green # 2 note. The green # 2-lows have been the classic backtest of former in course of 2019 finally upward broken 1st double arc.


Because into August 25th, the usual seasonal aspects were fully respected in 2019 so far, where the months of August & September usually should always be a quite weak period, I expected another small lower pullback low printed in course of September at about 2750 to 2730 pts, before dark-green dotted upward arrow should prevail and from the September lows a next powerful upward cycle should start, which must necessarily bring A) year 2019 rally continuation and B) some fresh highs for the year and on life-time base.


==> And with more than an 95% of probability + certainty, the index will be able to do higher highs and fresh alltime-highs in course of next 9 trading days.


As further proof of this I would like to mention the updated weekly 5 Candle up, starting at 2018 Xmas Low. See by yourself what the achieved weekly closing price of 3019.75 pts in the GUNNER24 System means:

 

 

The market quickly advanced back into the 2nd double arc yearly resistance area after the unusual successful backtest of the 1st double arc at seen summer lows.


==> Consequently 1st double arc became double arc support on yearly base.


==> However 2nd double arc became well-confirmed = strong resistance area on yearly base or for this rally year 2019 and market pulled back into naturally anchorable 2019 Rally Support Angle where at the early made October lows another uptrend began that cleared long-lasting lower line of 2nd double arc resistance decisively = finally at this week 3019.75 close, what is second highest weekly close ever made.


Since the lower line of 2nd has been Maginot Line for many months without really being crossed, the very bullish week close means that the market should quickly rally higher for the final work off of the upper line of 2nd double arc which is now the next higher very important goal or upmagnet of the rally year cycle.


This just fresh activated upper line of 2nd double arc uptarget resistance is already starting next week at the always attractive ATH resistance rail and at about 3060 points.


==> With a 95% probability ES # has to reach 3060 pts, fresh ATH and 2019 rally year high, in course of the coming 9 trading days! This forecast is equal to the dark-green arrow placement.


Hmm, a 3060 pts for the next week and the week after the next would test and finally work off another combined resistance magnet on yearly base and on life-time base.


This MAJOR inflection magnet together with an often occurring period of stock market weakness in the course of November ... "USUALLY"... should lead to a next "smaller and shorter" pullback cycle what could test back nearest strongest support magnet below in further course of November. For this about 55% odd pullback option see the orange-dotted arrow placement!


Ready to rock - Ready to roll:


This perhaps most attractive November pullback magnet, which is formed by 2019 Rally Support Angle and future course of lower line of 2nd double arc rail, could lead to a 2970 to maybe 2960 at final November pullback lows, before the traditional "Xmas rally" is expected to start, which would have to chase the ES # AT LEAST back up to the upper line of 2nd double arc resistance magnet or the 3050 pts area.


==> Thus the lower dashed blue arrow course marks the minimum closing price for the 2019 rally year, which is 3050 pts.


==> Depending on where the final low of November is exactly placed and how well the price is doing in the early part of December the 1-year-rally cycle = Xmas 2018 to Xmas 2019 wave = 1 full year of trading = 55 = (56-1= 55) Fibonacci number uptrend weeks can exaggerate extremely towards the end of 2019/ beginning of 2020 so that it can certainly come to a year-end close somewhere between 3070 and 3120 pts.


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Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann