Within my last public gold view that was issued on September 8 (GUNNER24 Newsletter "Now we smell the Top in Gold") – please click here to re-read this so far very good-looking forecast -, I´ve explained in full detail why on intermediate base the gold futures contract should have topped at 1566.2$ and as a final consequence the shiny metal usually has to correct into 1410$-1430$ Yearly SUPPORT CONCRETE NEST which is best seen below in the monthly chart:
There have been so many good reasons for an important high made back then. The most important ones summarized here once again:
Important top for 2019 likely, because at the 1566.2$ current 2019 High everything came together. Time has met price than, thus a change in trend became imminent. This top seems to be oriented to the 1-year-cycle, & "often" occurring bearish Labor Day pattern.
Price top among other important stuff caused by the 1*2 Resistance Angle, which springs directly from the 2011 all-time high. Probable turnaround than due because the bull run in the weekly chart was at the 55th and 56th candles, respectively. Prime Fibonacci number 55 had radiated that bear forces might get the upper hand and stronger correction/pullback likely getting started! And so on and much, much more...
The above technical price/time chart work shows why the running gold bull market should at least show a 1410$ to 1430$ retracement in further course and perhaps until end of October as the minimum consequence of the turn which began at 2019 High.
==> After the first bearish reaction to that intermediate high actually I see a +75% probability that gold ==> HAS TO TEST 1430$ - 1410$ YEARLY SUPPORT NEST until sometimes in course of October to November 2019.
Chosen downtarget for todays presented unusual clean sell-short setup is the yearly 1422$ support horizontal that unites for the October 2019 candle with above prominent highlighted, most obvious and most strongest support out of 2015 Bear Market Low which is the "2015 1*1 Bear Low Support Angle".
==> Downtarget for gold is the 1422.00$/October 2019 MEGA 2019 Concrete support magnet!
After this quick review, next let`s analyse recent gold developments since year high. For this we closely watch the weekly time frame, it`s current signal state and the two valid GUNNER24 Up Setups which express that since the highs the gold bull is braked simultaneously by important natural double arc resistances.
My first important valid weekly up setup of gold is the 10 Candle that starts measuring to the upside at # 1 //August 2018 Low, there where the 1-year-upcycle into 2019 High began.
==> I call this setup, or this measurement „1-year up cycle setup". Reason for this is that the bull market turned at natural weekly GUNNER24 Double Arc resistance main uptarget upmagnet for a perhaps longer time after exactly 1 trading year...
The time factor met price factor at natural 5th double arc main uptarget!! 55 Fib number and 56-1=55 Fib number have met 5th main uptarget (...original resistance...). And whenever price meets time or time kisses price a change in trend gets imminent.
The very first reaction to this marriage were 3 pretty red candle bodies and 2 lower weekly lows & highs and 2 lower weekly closings in a row, so we have +90% safety that a stronger down cycle should be underway. This week candle is No. 3 of a pullback/correction cycle, closed in "green" and near week highs.
The 5th has morphed to a confirmed strong downward sloping double arc resistance. For sure it acts as a determining resistance on weekly base. Cause the 5th is a responsible resistance where a year high is marked it might act as future double arc resistance on yearly base = unusual strong future party pooper.
Dear traders, please take care that the past week candle slightly crossed 2*1 Support Angle at its close what is a bearish prosecutor. The 2*1 Support Angle is initial and at same time last bull resort cause this week open and low have been above and have defended 2*1 Support Angle:
==> I tend strongly to the outcome that the 2*1 Angle support will fail to hold in course of the next few days cause he has already been wounded too seriously by past week candle which closed below 2*1 Angle. And as a consequence of a final and decisive 2*1 Support Angle failure the market should drop the gold like a stone and the follow through usually will be another hard weekly downleg or current running strong downcycle continuation into Yearly 1422$ Concrete in course of October.
This next 12 Candle up on weekly base actually depicts entire multi-year bull market advance best:
Another valid weekly up setup that fires that market found intermediate resistance at natural GUNNER24 Double Arc uptarget. Within 12 Candle up starting at # 1 // 2015 Bear Market Low the 4th double arc actually radiates bearish energy which is fully confirmed future important downward rail cause past week open was held back by lower line of 4th and candle before closed below lower line of 4th, after trading above nearly entire week.
Please observe also that the 2019 highs made very ugly looking bearish backtest of 1*1 Angle. So, market 100% accurately at the end of an 1-year-uptrend cycle bounced very negative into most obvious and usually most strongest existing W.D. Gann resistance which springs from the most important low of the recent years.
==> At same time two different weekly double arcs within two different up setups radiate stronger bearish energy. At same time 1*1 Backtest Angle out of 2015 Bear Market Low was tested back negatively! And this is what it is ==> NOT bullish and for SURE bearish...
Normally, the gold should continue to correct/pullback! At least into 1422$/October-November 2019!
Watch closely that by this week closing auction gold has re-conquered lower line of 4th resistance as a consequence of next bad China tarrifs news, the drone attack and quadruple witching Friday. Especially the late quadruple witching Friday rally smells like a bull trap underway. But could still be carried higher, because in the picture in the daily has eased a bit.
I think about to short gold at 1540.00$, precisely there is double main resistance for the next week candle. This future weekly resistance magnet is formed by upper line of 4th initial main resistance and a natural Resistance Angle which springs from current year high, thus at 1540$ til Friday perhaps even a double yearly resistance magnet is radiating for gold.
This week low is at 1490.7$ and a coming and soon expected week close below that price usually will be final confirmation for a 1422$ work off!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann