Gold reaching the 1822$ again – which way is it going to proceed?

Jerome Powell's dovish behaviour at the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers regarding upcoming taper and instead talking about why inflation is transitory let everything roar, except the $US and US yields. Equities, crypto, energy and even the hard beaten gold & silver rallied hard into Friday close.

AAAAAAND finally the gold was able to deliver the very first decisive close above its falling main resistance GUNNER24 Double Arc which has set the bearish tone for long, long 3 months:

Just as long and maybe even longer we use that above daily 9 Candle up starting at # 1 // 2021 Low for forecasting and identifying the individual waves of this stubborn gold downtrend which, for the sake of simplicity & and clarity, here I let start at the telling January 2021 high. January high is so far absolute 2021 Top and a lower countertrend high compared to the August 2020 alltime-high.

The daily 3rd double arc became confirmed downward oriented main resistance after the rally cycle starting at # 1 // 2021 Low found its end at the lower downtrend highs of May and June and after its next serious backtest at lower early-August highs its big bear energy forced gold into a serious bearish panic cycle and the famous August 9th overnight spike low at 1677.9$, what was serious backtest of # 1 // 2021 Low and set a bullish Double Low pattern on monthly base.

The last few days there was a next serious backtest of the 3rd double arc main resistance from below, whereby gold formed a/the orange-dotted Triangle consolidation resp. a maybe 3-day Falling Wedge.

Finally on Friday, the gold succeeded in printing the first decisive daily close above that stubborn & longlasting main resistance area.

What is of course an official GUNNER24 Buy Candle on daily base. Also gold was able to deliver another higher close on the weekly charts. These bullish signals combined indirectly confirm that the gold should be underway for the next backtest of the falling and at 2021 Top starting „Yearly Resistance" which combines with now activated 4th double arc uptarget and the yearly GUNNER24 Resistance Horizontal at the well-know 1872$ towards end of September.

By Friday close gold managed to activate the 1872$ again! 

Even within this above elliptical 9 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup, also anchored at # 1 // 2021 Low, which in my opinion illustrates the recent influence of the 3rd double arc resistance a little bit more precise as the first shown circular 9 Candle up measurement, we are able to recognize that Friday's closing auction should already be a very decisive bullish signal.

I show you the elliptical setup also that you see that the somewhat steeper orange-dotted Falling Wedge of Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday has formed within the lines of the the 3rd and the lows of Wednesday and Thursday have tested the lower line of 3rd – obviuously successfully – from above.

Also the elliptical measurement delivers that the Friday close is the very first daily close above a 3-month resistance!

So, gold looks now with high, high odds bullish til 1872$ and/or the „Yearly Resistance", what is a major upward resistance magnet on the monthly charts, has been re-visited.

Even the for weeks compared to gold underperforming silver managed to close above its currently most important stubborn resistance what is the 23.80$ to 24.00$ horizontal threshold, by this printing a bullish reversal candle on weekly base on Friday. To assess this signal somewhat – also with regard to the time factor!: => the last weekly buy signal for silver with this bullish signal strength was seen at the beginning of May.

==> Therefore, we should now trust in gold and should long it until 1872$ is in striking distance!

Of course, we should be aware that gold was slowed down into official week close by the well-known and the for years ruling 1822$ GUNNER24 Main Resistance rail:

Means, although the weekly gold chart delivered a next buy signal gold was not able to re-conquer the yearly 1822$ main resistance horizontal in this attempt, so far. Although the bullish opportunity for breaking 1822$ to the upside was clearly given.

Friday top of Dec21 contract arrived at 1821.9$ and this is of course an event of importance. This is an exact test or a to the T backtest of the 1822$ GUNNER24 Main Resistance Horizontal from below.

Above is a classic 5-Fib number daily up starting at the second pillar of the 2021 Double Low. And hmm, the last swing from Thursday low into Friday top can be nailed by this setup. We recognize the first square line was bullish horizontal at Thursday low and from then that horizontal radiated bullish energy until Friday top what exactly arrived at natural uptarget of lower line of 1st from below. Gold didn`t close above lower line of 1st, so this arc is confirmed future daily resistance.

By identifying this we have this big, big bull signal: A next daily gold close above 1822$ within days would be a STRONG uptrend continuation signal!

So, you should add to gold longs for the 1872$ main resistance uptarget magnet if it is able to close above a 1823$-1825$ or so within days.

But for now the 1822$ is again nearest confirmed main resistance. It is now and for the nearer future a combined daily and yearly resistance magnet.

And cause gold found a combined daily and yearly resistance magnet at Friday top it could retrace or pullback for the next few days, maybe following the „usual pattern" to be weaker into a monthly close which is due for Tuesday.

We don`t know WHEN exactly the 1822$ will be overcome on a daily closing base. That yearly threshold should be finally overcome sometime in the nearer future, when we respect the buy signals the GUNNER24 has fired. Maybe it will fall quickly, for example at Monday close. On the other hand August closing magnet might lead to some bigger weakness starting at Monday open ...

In such a pullback case the gold easily should re-test the somehow important ...

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Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann