Short entry at 1402

Also last week, S&P 500 stuck to the price and time targets given by GUNNER24 – from the predicted correction down to 1360 index points to the new try towards 1400. In the course of next week – probably Wednesday or Thursday – the market is expected to top and turn, correspondingly we are placing our weekly sell limit at 1402:

Last Sunday we expected some intermediate highs at 1392 to happen on Monday (1391.74 were reached), from there the market was predicted to correct onto the important 1360 daily + weekly supports (1354.65 were reached) where we went long with target 1402 expecting a new upwards wave. Correspondingly, our daily buy limit at 1360 worked that we had put last Sunday. Highs happened last Friday at 1394.16 and the weekly close was at 1390.99:

Here’s the actual state of the daily S&P 500 setup. The week closed near the highs and very narrow to the 1392 resistance. In addition we saw the highest daily (and of course weekly) close for months. Since the actual up wave that had started at the Thursday lows is but in its beginnings being the market at the swing top besides, now we can work on the assumption that the actual up wave is going to last at least 3, but rather 5 days (so next Thursday a top is possible).

In succession, with the actual up wave the 1392 resistance is going to be taken and correspondingly the 1402 will have to be headed for. At 1402 there’s the next higher important weekly double arc resistance – see the next chart below. There, at 1402 we’ll cover the daily longs, market if touched. The 1402 are the minimum target. The weekly time frame is prior to the daily one!! The daily setup is facilitating 1416 for Thursday. That’s where the strongest magnet in the setup above is lying.

It’s the strongest magnet because the index has rebounded several times from the resistance Gann Angle that might become the target again. On Thursday this resistance angle intersects the lower line of the 3rd double arc at 1416. The lower line of the 3rd will be headed for in any case – either in an exhaustion move (Thursday at 1416 is offering itself) or sometime in the week of 08/11-16 with a double top or a lower high.

In case Tuesday/Wednesday closes above 1404 Thursday will be able to exhaust to 1416.

From my point of view, the topping and the bottoming processes are always a little difficult to forecast concerning the price targets, especially if the expected lows/highs are still 3/4 days in the future, since by the possible end of a swing the "most likely path" to the high/low is not to be determined without the backing of the 4 hour or hourly time frame, i.e. the actual intraday course has to be consulted. That’s why we always open or close the positions within the GUNNER24 Forecasts at the minimum target.

The short entry at 1402 is planned because that’s where the important weekly resistance of the lower line of the 2nd double arc is passing.

Correspondingly the market may turn immediately after reaching the 1402, but it may also go into the space between the upper and the lower lines of the 2nd. The turning points within this space have always to be derived from the lower time frames. You see, above in the daily we worked out 1404 or even 1416.

1410 may also be a turning point, above at the weekly resistance Gann Angle…

Be that as it may, depending on how far the market is willing to exhaust, from 1402 a longterm short entry is offering itself for next week. The most important resistance is the 1402, from there the weekly resistance area is beginning, from there the market may turn down brutally at once. The chances for successful short-engagements are extremely good now, not only because the market is entering into some important weekly resistances, but also the seasonality speaks for short during the coming 2-3 months:

Source: http://www.seasonalcharts.de

The market usually turns during August and heads for the late spring lows. And nomally this lows should only be tested during September/October. Think, this behaviour should occure also this year, the market shows an clear uptrend which will top finally during spring 2013!

The late 2012 spring lows, the June lows, are at 1266. Maximum down target for the weekly short position is 1288 till September. Confirmation for reaching this target is a weekly close below the 1*1 support Gann Angle within the weekly 5 candle GUNNER24 Up Setup above. We short the market at any daily close above 1402 now. Weekly position. SL is a weekly close above the 2nd double arc at 1445.

Silver Assessment

Traders need a lot of volatility and stable trends for earning good money. So silver today is not really "traders favourit subject". It´s creeping and basing since months, showing sometimes fine and profitable intraday movements but compared with the strong 2010+2011 trends it´s nearly unbelievable how sticky the white metal can be. But.. some readers and members asked about what we have to expect the next few months:

Firstly the actual silver setup in the monthly chart is backing the fact that gold found its price bottom in May!

With the June 2012 lows at 26.105$ silver met a triple magnet. It’s well-known that the surroundings of 26.30 – 26.10$ offer a strong horizontal support. There’s just one problem with the heading for this support: Can’t the support be weakened by being tested so often and breaking through downwards finally. But now I think that during the test of the 26.30-26.10$ surroundings in June 2012 some other time supports came into play that might confirm the 26.105$ as to be the final correction low in silver.

On the one hand there’s the diagonal support that can be anchored at the lower arc of the 2nd double arc. That one doesn’t only meet simultaneously the horizontal at 26.105, but the June candle is lying exactly on the important transition from one square to the other. It’s a so-called important time line where very often important highs and lows are marked!

Turns are always to be expected at the important magnets. It’s very rare that in a monthly chart at one price as many as three magnets meet, and the fact that silver is caught by an additional diagonal is also a strong indication to an important low at 26.105 since silver reacts very, very often to the GUNNER24 Diagonals. See above…!!!

Furthermore June closed above the important 2008 support Gann Angle that has been giving the ascent gradient of the upwards trend!

In addition also July closed clearly with a white candle (July closing price is 27.915$). So it closed above the 2008 support Gann Angle again. The fact that June+July closed above the 2008 Gann Angle actually confirms a turn with the June 2012 lows and the transition towards the continuation of the upwards trend.

The first target for silver is now a test of the lower line of the 2nd double arc that passes at 29.60$ in August. We’ll have to observe this mark accurately. I actually tend to the opinion that only a monthly close above 30 – thus within the 2nd double arc – may become the trigger mark for the next strong upwards wave. I mean it will take a monthly close above 30 to develop the next brutal rally out of the actual kindergarden uptrend!

But a monthly close below the 2008 Gann Angle would go on facilitating a very quick heading for the 1*1 Gann Angle at 20-22$!! At the latest after a possible reaching of the 1*1 the next lunacy rally WILL HAVE TO and WILL start!

The way you, too, may take optimally advantage of the most bullish phase of the second half-year in the precious metal market, with intraday and swing trading methods is shown to you by the GUNNER24 Gold Trader.

Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann