What a merciless uptrend

The bets for the short-term perspective in the S&P 500 are placed. On time and compatible with the average course of the US markets in post-election years considered over 1897 to 2009 that puts out the absolute year-high to happen by the beginning of August and in accordance with the presidency cycle in post-election years that indicates the absolute year-high at the beginning of August as well, at the combined daily and weekly S&P 500 resistance of 1702 index points we went short. Daily position with target 1620.

You’ll find the analysis of the daily and weekly time frames and the backgrounds of the actual short-entry fully detailed in the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of 07/21/2013.

Both cycles have in common that by the beginning of August the market uses to top out, turning subsequently and falling through November before from there a strong year-end rally starts that tops out in the spring of the next year. But let’s be honest about this: Even though the weekly and the daily time frames and both cycles are indicating a correction now, the bears will have to be armed against the correction turning out poorer than "normally" in terms of time as well as price. In an extreme case the stock markets might fall but minimally in the coming weeks or even tend just sideways.

In the monthly time frame the S&P 500 generated a new strong monthly buy signal with the July close, you see. Target till May 2014 are 1875 index points now:

A fresh monthly buy signal cushions the sell signals in the weekly and daily time frame as it were. It mostly/often prevents profound corrections signaled by the "subordinate" time frames.

In case of the actual signal, with the July candle the important 4th double arc in the dominating monthly 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up was clearly taken. With a probability of more than a 75% the 5th double arc will be reached in trend direction now. At the 5th double arc the trend will be supposed to turn from up to down then.

All in all the market hasn’t spent much time with the 4th double arc. Only just the July candle corrected a little bit. The fact that the 4th double arc was finally taken in trend direction shortly after having been reached shows us how mercilessly this uptrend is escalating now.

This is my prognosis now: The trading year will reach its year-high with the 12/31/2013. 2013 is going to be a flawless uptrend year. A possible target for the end of December will be the environment of the horizontal resistance at 1763! I mean, with the opening of the first trading day the yearly low was produced already (1426.19)… In my opinion, along the 2*1 Support Gann Angle the market is going to go up until the 5th double arc will be reached. The 2*1 is forcing the market up. It was re-conquered in January 2013. So we are most likely not to experience any monthly close below the 2*1 Gann Angle support before spring 2014 and until the market will have reached the 5th.

Pay attention to the 1610 at the 2*1 Gann Angle now. Accordingly this is the maximum correction target that may become possible for August. But I don’t think that August is going to correct that low. For September the 2*1 is at 1620 being this the maximum correction target put out by the currently dominating weekly GUNNER24 Up Setup (GUNNER24 Forecasts of 07/21/2013). So the most important Gann Down Magnet is at 1620 for September. If the market really corrects that low the long-term investors should seize their last chance of grabbing.

Beside the important S&P 500 GUNNER24 Setups on daily and weekly base now the NASDAQ-100, too, is indicating in the monthly time frame having reached an important resistance. Corresponding with the seasonal items the NASDAQ-100 should start correcting now. But merely the fact that August is already trading within the lines of the 3rd double arc is a strong indication that the 3rd will finally be taken upwards:  

The market is steeply going up in a Gann Angle corridor. I expect the NASDAQ-100 to go up until May 2014 within this pre-defined corridor. From below the 2*1 Support Angle is backing. The Resistance Angle halted the market for the last months. But the up-pressure is obvious. The market has enormous upwards-energy. The August candle wants to take the Resistance Angle finally, but technically it is likely to retrace down soon together with the natural resistance of the 3rd double arc starting a correction. We’ll buy the market at the strongest monthly support, the center of the just passed square at 2980 MIT (market if touched). This buy-order will be valid till September 2013.

Just theoretically a correction might lead down to the 2*1 Support Gann Angle = 2840. In that case the market would perform just like it did with the retracements of the first and second double arcs. Then the strong resistances of the double arcs led to pronounced deep corrections in the uptrend…

But if the market keeps on pulling through overcoming significantly the Resistance Angle as well as the 3rd double arc in August we’ll buy an August close above 3232 with main target 3550 till May 2014.

In case of gold and silver some strong double arc resistances in the daily time frame prevent from further price rises. If these double arc resistances are taken upwards next week there’d be a bang, and a big, hefty one to boot.

Gold – daily 3 candle up:

This is a classical setup. Gold is almost perfectly complying with the resistances and supports given by the setup. The actual correction in the daily setup is visibly orienting itself to the lower line of the 2nd. The last touch with the lower line of the 2nd led to the first hefty decline for weeks. But on Friday a powerful U-turn happened exactly at the 1*1 Gann Angle. Short-term target is now again the lower line of the 2nd = 1326.50 for Monday.

It will take a daily close within the lines of the 2nd to give us a first hint that gold will rev up with target 1387 (combined weekly and daily uptarget). This might thoroughly happen next week. There are strong indications that the correction move on daily base was finished with the Friday low at 1282.50, A) because gold ideally turned at the 1*1, in fact visibly and with a lot of energy and B) this happened at the 8th day of the correction. And C) furthermore the correction touched down at the now confirmed upper line support of the 4th double arc in the dominating weekly 13 Candle GUNNER24:

It’s unambiguously positive that gold succeeded closing clearly above the upper line of the 4th in the weekly time frame. That might have been the perhaps first – but extraordinarily successful – test of this important Gann Magnet. Resistance becomes support… If a new swing high is reached, that should be the trigger for gold to go up at least to the next weekly resistance at 1387.

A daily close below 1280 next week will lead to reaching the important combined 1272 weekly + monthly support. This one is allowed to be fallen below for one or two days. In that case it would turn out to be another support test of the upper line of the 4th.

For gold signaling necessarily bear in mind the actual daily silver 2 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup. An enormous tension and up-energy is building up here. In the daily time frame silver is still being halted unequivocally by the first double arc having an effect as a strong resistance – last shown on Friday. The metal spiked clearly off the first double arc.

Combined with the daily down trendline (dotted purple) this resistance is looking so far as if it wouldn’t be overcome during the entire coming week. Maybe silver will first have to head for the 1*2 Support Angle before having collected enough energy for overcoming the first double arc on daily base. But one thing seems to me very obvious. The correction pattern of the last 8 days that has formed beneath the first double arc is extremely bullish. The correction low may have formed on the 8th day of the correction. Certainly Friday spiked off the first double arc, but it closed with a plus showing a reversal candle. In addition, for months it has been subject to the pressure of the down trendline. If silver really succeeds in dissolving the existing resistances upwards (that of course have the strength to force silver into some lower correction lows)… yea, in that case the corks will pop. A logical target would be the 3rd double arc at 22.50$ till the beginning of September!

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Be prepared!

Eduard Altmann