The highest art in trading and investing is certainly making out the currently valid trend in every moment. To be on the right side trading/investing in the respective trend direction is the trader’s and investor’s be-all and end-all. In mere theory, with these tactics constant money can be made.

The current gold and silver lows in June are important. It’s deadly now playing gold from the short side in the medium term (the coming 2-3 months). I think that a sustainable upleg is pending respectively underway now being supposed to last through the end of August at least. GUNNER24 is going to show you.

If all these current change-in-trend signals had emerged in any other month but June, at this place and at this moment, I would have sounded the full long-entry into gold and silver!

I don’t do so for today however, in as much as June isn’t over yet – the traditionally weakest month of the year. Next week Wednesday, the FOMC statement will still be due. In the last three years, really every time gold and silver rose onto the FOMC statement, topping shortly before or on Wednesday and falling during the statement and the days after dramatically. I.e., concretely for us traders that the current June lows might be tested again till the end of June. If the current June lows remain until the last June trading day = balls to the wall = full tilt long!

If gold and silver do not decline after the FOMC statement = full tilt long!

If gold and silver correct but slightly and for 3-5 days after the FOMC statement = full tilt long!

===> If gold closes June below 1235 however, the 1180-1200 will be worked off in July 2014 yet!

Let’s go now to the impressive change-in-trend signals in gold, silver and the gold- und silver miners. Since the combination of all these signals is that seldom – even unique - in terms of their accumulation, it makes clear that in the medium term (2-3 months) only the long side can be the favored trading direction:

The Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ (with a deduction also GDX and SIL) record an enormously high buy volume from June 10-13 that after the higher high of 05/28 on weekly base is confirming the latter now. My fellow analysts veritably tripped over in the web on these impressive buying waves. Right they are! It was a really smashing buy signal being generated directly by the Smart Money. The Smart Money is reallocating into the miners leaving the broader markets. The miners mostly precede gold and silver as far as changes in trend are concerned.

==> The gold and silver miners will experience a trend year 2014 finishing the year 2014 near the year highs. Up to what height the mines are going is a very different story. +20-30% of the current levels is what I presume…

Outright and at the end of this issue, I will still go into the likewise much-noticed – and much- discussed in the web – and supposed down trendline break in silver. The 2011 down trendline was exceeded by the current weekly close. The way to trade this break (the confirmation of the break has to be minded now) I’ll show you at the end of these forecasts.

The new thing, and what nobody has shown respectively told you, and what substantiates and reinforces the buy signals above is the impressive combination between Fibonacci- and Gann- change-in-trend signals in gold. If I hadn’t counted and verified 10x by myself, I would not believe that such a concentrated temporal harmony indicating an impressive June change in trend, can really exist:

In the 34th month and at the same time in the 144th week of the correction, on June 03 gold found its next important higher low.

Since in June 2014 also the 1 year cycle low in gold and silver is due after Gann, the cycles are virtually shouting: "That was it with the decline for the time being".

This imposing combination of important Fibonacci Numbers in both important time frames and the fact that Gann’s 1 year cycle seems to have bottomed together with the case that both 2013 correction lows held, possibly being cemented some additional higher monthly and weekly lows with the early June low 2014, is suggesting an important turn. By all means, in the medium term it is.

This existing Fibonacci/Gann/GUNNER24 constellation even allows that the whole correction move, started in September 2011, finished with the lows of June 03, 2014 being underway the next upleg of the secular gold bull market since then. This theory requires an unequivocal confirmation yet, however!

For my taste, this turn on June 03 is a little too early in the month because I would have preferred not to see an important turn before the end of the month, because traditionally June really always uses to show weakness until the monthly close… That’s why above I indicated to wait first for the reactions to the FOMC meeting… Maybe the 06/03 lows want to be tested seriously again… 

 

 

The current June 2014 low tested the important 1*1 Bull Market Angle starting from the final Lehman crisis low. In fact, it was exactly and for the second time in the 34th month of the correction. Thereby the 50% mark of the 2008-2011 bull legt was newly tested in June 2014. We can see that the June 2014 candle is bouncing away now from the 1*1 Bull Market Angle. It’s a strong indication to a lasting turn. So far, the bounce is pretty poor. Technically, a strong bounce should follow from such an important support. If the 1*1 Bull Market Angle holds in June (!) really some strong up-forces should rather start from July!

The entire correction seems to orient itself thoroughly by the important fib numbers. In month # 22 of the correction, at the support of the 2nd double arc and a GUNNER24 Diagonal, the first important correction low was brought in. An important high of the correction happened in month #14.

The first test of the 1*1 Bull Market angle took place in month # 28 of the correction. A higher monthly low was cemented in December 2013. Together with the new test of the 2nd double arc support, at the low of # 28 enough up-energy appeared to start the spring rally 2014.

Last week closed at 1276 and thereby above the important 1272 monthly GUNNER24 Magnet (well, the important gold magnets are situated at 1172/1222/1272/1322/1372/1422, lately derived in GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 03/02/2014)!

First, this weekly close means now a weak buy signal. For the time being – the important monthly 1272 GUNNER24 Magnet was cracked. Let’s go now into the weekly time frame considering a weekly up setup that starts at the important July 2010 lows, showing a first 13 week initial up impulse that I used very often for the forecasts in the years 2011-2013 (here or here and last here (08/04/2013)).

 

Then it was the very most important forecasting instrument for gold, and it seems to keep on being. Now it is signaling us an important development:

 

 

For temporally it expires exactly in the week # 144 of the whole correction! The upper line of the 5th double arc intersected the time axis exactly at the current June low. The entire up setup seems to be losing its influence to the market that was/is very impressive, to put it mildly.

The all-time high was made at an important GUNNER24 Horizontal Resistance. This resistance forced gold into the correction on monthly and into the downtrend on weekly base at red # 1. All the important Fibonacci Numbers I put in red beside the corresponding weeks. At least in the cases of # 13 and # 55 we see that the GUNNER24 Method/Magnets takes an exactly synchronic course with important Fib Numbers. Especially in the case of # 55 and the resistance of the 4th GUNNER24 Double Arc we see what it means when the GUNNER24 and Fib Numbers coincide. This combination signaled a hefty change in trend downwards then following the downwards course of the 4th double arc in an exemplary manner.

Yet the focus in the chart above I put on the fact that an important high (the all-time high, then countertrend highs) including downturn in gold appears whenever double arcs intersected the time axis. Please mind the red ovals between the dotted orange verticals symbolizing the intersection points of the lines of the double arcs with the time axis.

The space between the lines of the double arcs 1, 2, 3 and 4 have always symbolized important highs in the weekly downtrend – except, yeah, except for the 5th double arc. For the first time the setup above signaled an important low just after the upper line of the 5th intersected the time axis. At the moment, it looks like an inversion! The downwards influence of this setup, beginning in September 2011 seems to have come to an end now.

==> This fact is permitting a new upleg so far. It’s pretty likely to be a 2-3 month lasting upleg. How high it is going will be another story… see the monthly setup above… It may be going up vaguely, rather like a sideway move with a slightly upwards tendency = 1322 or so. Technically, from July 1st, 2014 a considerable up dynamic should appear however.

==> This fact is permitting, too, now that with the low of June 03, 2014 the next upleg of the secular bull market has started… but we don’t know yet…

The starting point of the up setup (07/28/2010 and 1155.60$) is extremely important for the complete consideration of the uptrend and the previous correction. None of the previous lows after this 07/28/2010 has succeeded in falling below this low. That means higher lows on weekly base – so far. If now the low of the # 144 succeeds in being defended till the end of June gold will be out of the woods for the next couple of months!

If June 2014 even copes with closing above the 1276, inevitably the 1322 will have to be headed for again! Current target of this upleg is attaining the 3rd double arc in the 9 Candle monthly GUNNER24 Up Setup until the end of the year – at about 1400$! This is where the decision will be made whether the correction in the monthly time frame will continue having to be reached the 1000 and perhaps the 800 in 2015… or gold succeeds in taking the 3rd double arc resistance upwards finally.

A monthly close above this 3rd double arc = most important strongest future monthly resistance area will confirm gold to be in the next several year upleg of the secular bull market.

If gold is reflected by the 3rd double arc at the end of 2014 to the spring of 2015, consecutively the 1*1 Bull Market Angle will be supposed to fall either at the 3rd or 4th serious test and thereby the 1*2 Support Angle being headed for. In that case, the final low of the correction would be expected in month # 55 of the correction.

Let’s go now to the break of the downwards trendline in silver, sketched at the beginning.

Lastly, within the free forecasts of 05/11/2014 I went into the silver situation and the importance of the special downtrend line that in reality is a Gann Angle:  

 

 

 

I ask you imperatively to read up the then forecast. Then we wanted to buy silver in case of the 2011 Resistance Angle to be broken upwards:

 

 

This is what the chart including 2 Candle GUNNER24 Setup is looking like from the present-day perspective.

We recognize that the 2011 Resistance Angle is clearly taken upwards with the Friday close. BUT it is not final yet! Given the importance and the several year dominance of this angle it will take at least two consecutive weekly closings above to justify an entry according to the rules… Considering the well-known bitchiness of silver, actually 3 or even 4 weekly closings are to be advised to exclude a false signal.

For next week, the 2011 Resistance Angle takes its course at 19.50. thus a weekly close above 19.55 next week should be a relatively safe cushion for a promising long-entry on medium-term base. The FOMC statement may certainly lead to a sell-off move next week. So, just a weekly close above 19.55 should be used for a mid-term long-entry. Target in this case will be the 22$ mark initially.

From there silver will be supposed to aim at the 3rd double arc suppot. It may, nay, it must go down again after reaching the medium-term 22 target. For without reaching, without touching with the 3rd double arc support no lasting bull leg is allowed or possible! The 19$ respectively 20$ are expected to be seen again after attaining the 22$!

 

A first weekly close within the 3rd double arc from September 2014 to the year close 2014 would signal that silver will glower, perhaps to 12$. Until the yearend and at the latest till February 2015 silver and gold will have to seize the 26$, respectively the 1450$ and above. Otherwise I will be pessimistic for 2015 = 800$ for gold respectively 12$ for silver would be the painful correction targets on monthly base in that case!

In these whipsaw markets of the last weeks that might confuse any trader thus leading mercilessly to burning the trading account the professional signals have got their special importance. You get them in the GUNNER24 Gold Trader!

 

You best register with our GUNNER24 Gold Trader now. That’s where we oversee the optimal entries and exits for you. Especially in the difficult market situations where many factors have to be considered the Gold Trader is backed by the additional GUNNER24 Signals based on the combined 1, 4 and 8 hour setups to catch the optimum entries and exits.

 

 

 

Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann