At the time of my last gold market analysis (Sunday 05/29), the metal was at 1215.30 being forecast then to correct into a bottom at 1206.40 resp. 1200 within 5 days in order to reach the 1255 then, within 10 to 13 trading days:
Very soon, just the Monday afterwards, the Memorial Day 05/30, the August16 contract found its correction low at 1201.50 being the 1255 finally overcome last Wednesday. Wednesday was the 7th trading day after the attained correction low. Being overcome the 1255 on daily closing base made clear that the metal will have to reach and process its next higher center of attraction – the 1272 combined yearly + monthly GUNNER24 Horizontal pivot. For the proven importance of the 1323-50=1273-50=1223-50=1173-50=1123-50=1073 have a look at: "The importance of 1072.30 for Gold! ==> www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/august-2015/02082015/
Last week closed plainly above the 1272: at 1276.30. Last Friday was the 9th day of the newly started up cycle. Coming Monday will be the 10th, Tuesday the 11th and FOMC Wednesday the 12th day of the current cycle. So, for this period the next important immediate gold high is threatening to happen.
What does this recent – pretty bullish – outcome mean now to the bulls and the bears? After all keeps being valid this:
==> Gold delivered the weekly close above 1272. Technically, there’s the strong suspicion now that it will quickly have to reach 1300-1308 resp. even the 1322 afterwards.
==> On the other hand – and this is true as well and an assured fact – I keep claiming that the "Commercials and the Big Banks are at the helm now", probably being the current upmove matter of a Suckers Rally, thereby not likely being able to test back the 1300-1308 once more.
A) On the one hand, we realized that from the very first May trading day, the simultaneous 2016 year high at 1306, the Commercials and the Big Banks were able to force gold most punctually dead-straight steadily and brutally deep B) into the August16 contract rollover deadline (rollover date Friday 05/27) just to deliver later on C) immediately on the following Monday – a holiday, what else…!!! D) the final May low at 1201.50. Thus the Commercials and the Big Banks E) became able to hammer a flawless downtrend monthly reversal signal May into the chart.
F) Absolutely punctual after the contract rollover resp. after the May close "the metal is allowed again!!!!" to rise. Hence, for the present month of June we newly realize that an important change took place, in a rather timely manner with a month turn.
==> These CONSPICUOUSNESSES in respect of time are too important and too striking to be matter of mere coincidence. Somebody must be puppeteering on a really grand scale, somebody most important being completely on top of the gold market being able to channel it in some direction or other, at his leisure whenever he wants to resp. considers necessary. This somebody is making quite a lot of money just now.
This leads me to the next available important date. The G) FOMC Wednesday, 06/15. The so far certainly most important trading day in 2016. Is it a new rate hike or not? And when exactly? Still in 2016 however? We all know the sensitive rigor gold has been applying for many years now in the delivery of important turns or extremes at or near the FOMC dates.
Besides, the Brexit referendum is due as well. Key date 06/23. I’m afraid, gold is going to turn out to be sport these days. Its soon individual buy and sell signals shouldn’t be trustworthy, resp. these ones shouldn’t become "visible" before "certain" time. For sure is only this: On the agenda of these days there are some supposedly really heavy currency turbulences.
US$, EURO, YEN and the British Pound will be the main actors during the rest of June. The FOREX market is the largest and most powerful financial site in the world. The leading stock markets in the world as well as the metal sector (Gold/Silver/Platinum/Gold and Silver Miners) will have to accept a subordinate role to the movements and individual signals and correlations of the currencies above mentioned.
Increasingly, during the coming two weeks again and again some new polls, assumptions and statements on the outcome of the referendum will rule the airwaves. These ones are to influence the markets, boost the volatilities, maximize the spread of the daily ranges, trigger ups, downs, stop-losses, deficiency signals and traps. The more often the better. That’s Big Business. At the end, those will win who have most power resp. the biggest accounts, namely those who produce the reports…
Now back to the gold. At the latest next Tuesday but probably as early as Monday 18:00 GMT, it will reach and process the 1285. Therewith, it will have reached and processed its currently most important up magnet but also the currently most important = strongest resistance.
The 1285 will be resistance in the yearly time frame for next week:
Above, you see a 23 Candle up in the weekly time frame. It starts at the bear low = # 1 measuring from there up to the current May high at 1306 that is also year 2016 high. Last week, gold finished near the weekly highs and above the 1272-Major-GUNNER24 Horizontal Pivot.
By this positive development by the week close, some higher targets were activated for the course of next week. Obviously, just at the beginning of the week – as mentioned till Tuesday at the latest – gold will process the Blue Arc that is situated at 1285 for the next candle.
The Blue Arc is yearly resistance since it catches the year high. 1272 is weekly closing base support again now, since it’s overcome. Very simple.
>>> As to the GUNNER24 Trading Rules, the next truly monumental buy signal will arise in case gold closes above the Blue Arc with relative certainty. >>>
For the coming FOMC week, the Blue Arc is at 1285.
For the week after that one being the week of the Brexit referendum, it is at 1280.70.
The outcome of the referendum will be announced after-market, on Friday 06/24. Thus, gold cannot react to the result of the referendum before the post-referendum week. Then, the Blue Arc takes course at 1275.
If the British vote for an exit the general expectation is that gold will have to pop upwards because of this sign of instability. This means by reverse implication that the Bremain will force gold to submerge for the time being. One thing must be for sure to all of us: Brexit will never happen.
Howsoever. Just rule-technically any clear weekly close above the Blue Arc in the course of the month of June will activate immediately the 1340 first square line resistance as higher target. Purple dotted arrow outcome. In case of such a signal, the 1300-1308 year 2016 resistance area should actually be overcome quite swiftly. It would hardly still be significant for the then started upleg in the monthly time frame…
I work however on the assumption that gold will rebound from the 1285 year resistance in the course of next week to test back then the 1222, in the course of the post-referendum week! That’s where the currently strongest support magnet = attraction down magnet for gold is situated.
Then and there, the 1222 horizontal intersects the 1*1 Bull Angle that already at the May low, delivered pinpoint support and strong bounce energy. Technically, gold should have to reach a far higher low at 1222 in the post-referendum week attaining from there the 1340 till August/September. Watch the red dotted and green dotted arrow placement.
Concerning the importance of the pending processing of the 1285 yearly resistance in the course of next week and the thoroughly realistic chance to be overcome finally the next days, a look at the present situation in the daily time frame:
Above, you see a 2 Candle up starting at the 1201.50 correction low, the final May low (# 1),
With the Thursday candle, the 3rd double arc resistance was overcome finally on closing base thus being officially activated the lower line of the 4th double arc as the next higher important uptarget in the daily time frame. The lower line of the 4th resistance is in the 1285 area till the FOMC Wednesday. Thereby, also the daily time frame delivers/displays decisive resistance at 1285 for next week.
==> At 1285, there is the existing combined daily + weekly + yearly resistance!
==> At 1285, the potential right shoulder (RS) of an extremely classical SHS topping formation might be brought in – and thereby a next important lower high (LH) as well.
==> After the expected 10-13 day up, the current daily up cycle might textbook exhaust near the 13 Fib turn number shortly before or at or the day after the FOMC Wednesday, and afterwards gold might correct subsequently into the 1222 for 10-13 days.
==> I strongly tend to the opinion that owing to the decisions released by the FOMC, gold will have to start its next down cycle in the daily time frame without overcoming sustainably the 1285 in the course of the coming week. The upmove since the May low was surprisingly strong in regard to its price performance, thereby being rather overrun in my opinion. It was orchestrated by the Commercials, the Big Boys resp. the FED certainly pricing in already the decision that the next rate high won’t be due before late summer / maybe in autumn.
===> Higher prices than the expected 1285 in the course of next week – perhaps 1290-1292 – mustn’t astonish. Ultimately, an orchestrated run has always the assignment to produce false signals mostly forcing the market participants to make wrong decisions then.
==> Yet we also know that gold is in a crystal-clear uptrend year in 2016, thereby important resistances such as the 1285 for next week are only there in order to be taken out upwards "indeed surprisingly" and often also with brutal consequence!!!
==> That’s why you better wait each time in June for the respective weekly closing price before you go long again consequently in gold. Go long as soon as the dominating Blue Arc in the weekly 23 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup above is unequivocally overcome on weekly closing base. Target in that case would be 1340!
==> And/or alternatively. Wait till the 1222 is tested successfully in course of the next 2-4 trading weeks before you go long again consequently in gold!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann