An attempt to get a feel for the War Cycle in Precious Metals

 

Now that a war with the associated nuklear fears have even caused the Precious Metals to gain some bullish momentum despite an allmighty $US, I had resolved over the weekend, firstly, to somehow find out how long the current rally, respective this next clearly visible monthly upward trend cycle in the Precious Metals could last.


And secondly, where the next really important upward targets of this uptrend, which started at the individual 2021 lows, might be anchored.


And this wan`t even that easy, because the most classic of all crisis metals, gold, has so far still not been able to overcome its nearest most important = strong yearly resistance of the 1972$ horizontal.


And the silver, well, silver always does what it wants anyway. It doesn`t stop cheating and tricking all the time. At the moment, despite exuberant war fears, sanctions and the massive commodity rally around it, it`s trading only right in the middle of its 21.50$ to 30$ trading range formed over the last 20 months, with a weekly close of 25.88$.


Palladium is once again - as it has been for many, many years - the strongest of all the 4 classic Precious Metals and its most traded future contract will reach new alltime-highs as early as tomorrow. It`s price will thus have doubled since the 1531$ cycle low printed in January. However, this market is also the narrowest of the classic 4 Precious Metal markets, and it is also the only one that is not under controll of the large American Banks & Big Boys, but is controlled by the Russians.


So only the platinum remains.


But this now gives us a very good indication of what is likely to happen over the next few weeks and months. How long this PM uptrend triggered by the Ukraine/Russia war, could last, as well as where the main upward targets of this war cycle may be printed:

 

 

The bull market of the PL # (Platinum continuous futures contract) started at the enormously important final Bear Market Low of March 2020. The bet is that the March 2020 Low at 562$ will be the FINAL LOW of the entire 2020-2029 DECADE!


We must always take this into account when assessing the strength of the signals the market is firing!


The first big wave of a new yearslong bull market cycle run for about 1 year as it topped finally in course of February 2021 (Feb21). A cycle that lasts about 1 full year is quite ordinary stuff.


After Feb21 bull market highs it corrected until December 2021 bear extreme where last year`s final low at 886$ came in. At December 2021 low the current weekly and monthly upward trend was triggered.


Therefore 2021 was a classic correction year, with the final highs set early in the year and the lows occurring towards the end of the year. So we count 1 year of uptrend followed by a 10 month correction. Therefore, the uptrend what began December 2021 should last AT LEAST a few months again to get the right ratio compared to the two previous waves of the bull.


With the help of the above seen weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up, that has to be set at the 562$ final 2020 Bear Market Low, we recognize that the so far Feb21 bull market high with an 100% accuracy arrived at the natural uptarget of the upper line of 3rd double arc.


This 3rd double arc turned out to be the strongest and most important resistance space thereafter and for the entire year 2021.


It forced the market into 2 important lower correction highs and finally forced the market at the final low of 2021 into the 100% perfect & 100% accurate first test/first backtest of the 1*2 Bull Market Support Angle, by this confirming that the 1*2 Bull Market Support Angle should be the strongest of all future supports.


Now we know that the final low of the last year is set precisely at one of the most important natural supports of this DECADE (1*2 Bull Market Support Angle springs directly from the absolute low of this DECADE ...).


Means, the current weekly & monthly uptrend started textboowise at a DECADE support and should therefore last for a long time - => many months ( 5 to 8?!) - and should become strong again in terms of the price factor!


==> The second (big) upwave of the multiyears-long bull market cycle likely began at final low of 2021!


You must have seen it already ..., PL # on the weekly chart now shows 3 consecutive weekly closings above the upper line of 3rd, what was the responsible resistance rail for printing the current bull market high. ==> Market cleared the upper line of 3rd main resistance A) on weekly closing base, but also B) at final close of February 2022 = on monthly closing base!


And this, dear fellow traders, means a next heavy platinum buy signal! This recent overcoming of the yearly 3rd double arc main resistance is a GUNNER24 Buy Signal on combined yearly and weekly base and therefore the environment of the 4th double arc in bull market wave 3 upward direction should be approached next.


Probably by June 2022 at the latest, as the next important orange-dotted ITL-vertical is due for then.


==> This war-cycle uptrend should continue into 4th double arc upmagnet/uptarget and its main task seems to be the very classic retest of the natural resistance environment of the 2021 bull market highs.


==> Since platinum usually always correlates fine with gold and silver, and gold and silver are often also oriented harmoniously to the respective platinum trend, we have to reckon with the outcome that gold and silver should also reach/test/backtest their individual 2021 bull market highs resistances by the end of June 2022 at the latest!

 

 

But obviously, IF the 2021 bull market highs, respective the weekly PL # 4th double arc environment above, are overcome until the end of June 2022 - on a weekly closing base and/or on a monthly closing base -, the war-cycle resp. the underway big bull market wave 3 should immediately run for much higher prices than „only" the 1310$ to 1281$ range, which is now the official PL # upside target zone.


Above, I have highlighted a nice uber-bullish time event, namely that the final low of 2021 at the DECADE 1*2 Bull Market Support Angle arrived in the course of the 92nd week of the entire bull market and therefore was oriented to the 89-Fib number what is always possible BIG, BIG turn number regarding the time factor.


To conclude today`s hopefully pioneering PM forecast, I would like to say something about the current weekly uptrend cycle what - watch out & remember it well - with next week will be in its 13th week!:


The last 3 candles have closed above the 3rd double arc what is former yearly resistance environment. This is a strong buy signal, activating the final work off of the 4th double arc in bull market direction ...


Very telling, this uptrend week No. 12 shows a precise, very classic backtest of the A) upper line of 3rd from above, and at the same time the week low B) again confirmed the bullish energy of the green 2*1 Gann Angle that comes from the lowest price of the year 2021. Means, this week low likely was a classic & a very successfull backtest of a yearly support magnet (upper line of 3rd rail & green 2*1 Gann Angle). This usually means that this week # 12-low is a next important higher uptrend low, but simultaneous was a next strong buy signal on the weekly chart.


As a bullish result the underway daily buying panic cycle should continue smoothly into the weekly GUNNER24 Target Range of 1174$ to around 1195$, before this next due weekly resistance area possibly triggers a next really important weekly upcycle high what could be released by the 13-Fib number time event magnet! Maybe!


Also, I will buy a Monday/Tuesday pullback for a textbook backtest of the natural weekly GUNNER24 Horizontal Support running at 1103$ what became re-conquered by far at this week 1126$ close => a strong bullish confirmation that PL # should be able to work off 1174$ to 1195$ within a few days or even hours!


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Eduard Altmann