Adjourned games all over

During the reduced trading week, actually nothing really noteworthy happened in the markets we scan. The most outstanding event seems to have been the next NASDAQ-100 Bull market high that was marked on Friday at 3687.16 index points. But all in all the week closed really unchanged in this leading index (-0.03%). The week took a likewise uneventful course in the Dow Jones (-0.32%) and S&P 500 (-0.13%). Gold and silver that I’d like to analyze a little more intensely today, ditto brought over a lusty doze and low volatilities. Silver closed the week unchanged and gold shows small gains.

But next week some more movement is expected to get into the markets. I think that the stock markets were kept above this week by the Friday expiration date. In an upwards directed market the expiry weeks tend to be bullish. After the expiration some weakness usually appears that mostly doesn’t start to prevail before 3-4 days after the expiration date. The first two days after the expiry don’t use to be very strong, but they still like to keep above the stock markets.

Moreover in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ-100 in February we could observe for the first time that on Friday there was a selling tendency into close = Friday weakness. It’s an indication that the smart money doesn’t believe too much in furthermore rising prices during the coming days and weeks.

I expect the NASDAQ-100 to reach the 3695-3700 yet within the next 2 days before turning down finally. The 3695-3700 is the very strongest Gann Magnet above being identified as the next higher uptarget last Sunday. Without working off this magnet, technically the market shouldn’t be allowed to dive strongly.

In my opinion the Dow Jones is nearly completely confirmed already in its large correction that is supposed to last through May 2014. Unambiguously it is not able to attack its all-time high of 12/31/2013, trading about 500 points beneath this ATH and seemingly having shaped a lower high on daily and weekly base. The first important confirmation for a long-lasting correction will finally occur when the low (15340.69) of 02/05/2014 will be fallen below.

The S&P 500 worked off its currently most important weekly resistance last week to a T. The upper line of the 5th double arc in the weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup:

For the time being, optically the market corrected but slightly after this very important – and technically even very strong - weekly resistance that took a course at 1847.50 last week. Several things would seem to indicate that the market really won’t manage to go higher permanently. First, with the weak Friday close the S&P 500 has to give up the 1*1 Gann Angle again. Certainly just a minimum weekly close below the 1*1 Gann Angle took place, but technically this fact is a poor weekly sell signal.

Besides, just compare the all-time high candle at the resistance of the lower line of the 5th with the last weekly candle, please. Both look about the same, thus performing about the same as for the first reaction to the corresponding weekly resistance. Not before the week after the market reached its weekly resistance the resistance had a hefty effect. As a result, after all the index had to dive into its strong weekly support zone that is situated between 1750 and 1711.

If now a severe reaction = rebound from the current weekly resistance during the next 5 trading days wants to become apparent the S&P 500 will be supposed to reach at least the 1800 in a first new selling wave. The 1800 will be confirmed if the strong 1820 weekly support horizontal on daily base is fallen below.

A weekly close above last week’s high = 1847.50 will be a new mighty buy signal on weekly base that paves the way to the 1900 mark till April 2014!

Gold is struggling with the 1322 monthly resistance – silver has its weekly up target of 22.50 still ahead.

Today I’d like to make the daily up setups of gold and silver more accessible to you once again. This way the further forecast of the current countertrend is to be apprehended best.

Last I presented you the current daily gold and silver up setups in the GUNNER24 Forecasts of 02/09/2014. Then it was positively for sure that gold and silver would have to go up. Uptarget in gold was 1322, and silver had to head for 21.50. Exemplary for the then valid forecast here’s the daily 4 Candle GUNNER Up Setup of 02/09/2014:

Then I marked the forecast according to price and time with the green course. Please put the focus above to the beginning of the next powerful selling wave = thick red dotted downwards line… that one technically was to start in the week of March 03-07, 2014…

After the positive developments of last week it’s almost for sure that the start of the next selling wave will have to delay by at least one week! The next higher monthly up magnet of 1372 is most likely to be worked off till 03/10/2014! Thereby gold is not "allowed" to start falling before that, i.e. at the earliest from March 13 on.

For, according to the GUNNER24 Rules, with the several time daily closings above the 2nd double arc a clear new strong daily buy signal has formed. The next higher resistance double arc in the daily time frame, the 3rd double arc, is now activated as next target zone of the current gold countertrend on daily and weekly base. It will be reached with a 75% of probability. Within the next 10 trading days the 1372 is likely to be worked off.

Certainly last week was absolutely nothing doing in terms of price in gold. But chart-technically the development turns absolutely fantastic for all the gold bulls.

Technically the 1322 monthly resistance - the derivation of this resistance is to be found in this issue of the GUNNER24 Forecasts - should develop a powerful rebound-energy. But it doesn’t.

On the contrary the metal succeeded several times in closing above 1322 on daily base. Last it did on Friday! The inner strength of the market is shown by an extremely tight consolidation at the swing highs. Such tight consolidations at the highs mostly dissolve pretty quickly and above all heftily upwards! A daily close above the current swing high of 1332.50, made last Tuesday, is supposed to lead gold rapidly to the 1372!

The 2nd double arc is effective now as a strong support area. That’s why truly gold should be alble to test it the coming 1-2 days, but technically it’s not likely to go much lower than 1300.

In the end, silver showed the same performance as gold last week. Most powerfully it consolidates the swing highs above its 2nd double arc in the daily time frame that is exerting now a strong support function as in the case of gold:

For 3 days silver closed visibly and significantly above the 2nd double arc. As well as in gold that’s a new daily buy signal! And just as in gold the 3rd double arc is likely to be reached till March 10, 2014. But in contrast to gold this rise is not going to show the power and strength of the last up-wave. The metal is supposed to work its way up rather tenaciously, along the 1*1 Gann Angle to reach the 22.50 till March 10. For in silver the 1*1 Gann Angle is determining the daily rise in price and time whereas gold, visibly for all of us, is after all orienting itself by the 2*1 Gann Angle that is taking a much steeper course…

The now following rise, expected rather tenacious, derives from the mighty resistances that silver has coming up now. At 22.20 as well as at 22.50 there are powerful weekly Gann Angle Resistances above the current level that are likely to prevent a new strong and unrestrained ascent to the 22.50 countertrend main target.

If silver succeeds in conjuring on the floor 2 consecutive weekly closings above the 22.50 in March, it will be supposed to reach then the 25$ mark within 3 trading weeks quickly, strongly and without being restrained by important weekly and monthly GUNNER24 Resistances!

Mostly we know where the greatest threat lurks and the most profitable gain beckons. For the GUNNER24 Forecasting Method again and again outplays an advantage that many other analyzing methods cannot take into consideration: The factor time.

As for instance in gold and silver where I forecast both last highly profitable +5% and respectively +7% rallies in price and time nearly to a T, I can constantly accompany and support you too when it comes to your trading decisions in these capricious trading times. To know before the crowds do where the trip is really going to is of survival, providing additional security in trading.

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Eduard Altmann