A chance to profit from the Silver Peak

 

Within past Sunday free GUNNER24 Newsletter "Gold Signals a Top", I have sent my opinion on the current situation of the gold, as well as my medium-term expectations for the development of the gold. Please click here on link to re-fresh this very, important mid-term view in which we should in trust until proven otherwise!


But actually, silver is the main issue or reason why the Gold-Silver Complex should now have topped on intermediate base and as a consequence could have started a perhaps up to 2 months lasting downtrend or 8 to 12 weeks running correction cycle.


Within the 28th of December Trade of the Day setup (please click here to re-read analysis in full detail) this last chart analysis and trend forecast was provided about the silver. In particular to the SLV ETF...


Ruling GUNNER24 Up Setup in the monthly chart has projected an uptarget at 15.15$ to 15.20$ for the SLV that should be tested and finally worked off at expected important January 2019 highs...

 

 

... then it was a high probability that the trend that started at 2018 Double Low Pattern has to work off upwards projection according the time and the price factor cause this is very attracting upmagnet resistance on monthly but also on yearly base.


Then in nice obvious harmony with monthly situation according to a 15.15$-15.20$ for likely January 2019 highs was technical daily time frame projection:

 

 

Towards the end of 2018 the SLV ETF told us that a 15.30$-15.15$ is almost inevitable for the upcycle that began after the bullish resolution of the 2018 Double Low pattern cause price jumped above a Sideways-Box which could maintained for 91 trading days and this was important combined price/time signal for a sustainable change in trend that usually should have tested above red highlighted yearly countertrend resistance, at same time strongest nearest important upmagnet.


At final January highs, the SLV spiked into that Big, Big falling Resistance Upwards Magnet, printing current 2019 High at 15.19$:

 

 

With a very high odd the printed 15.19$-January 2019 High is the next important cycle peak cause penultimate week candle has delivered long upper wick starting at most strongest existing falling resistance area. This is sign of bull exhaustion finally kicking in at 15.19$ 2019 High. Exactly this same signal could already be recorded three times at the 3 important lower week highs of the year 2018, I`ve highlighted with the red arrows. Unfortunately for the bulls we are additionally able to count a 21 Fib number upleg on weekly base into current 2019 High, if we start the weekly cycle count at the first 13.11$ pillar of the Weekly Double Low.


Most strongest existing falling SLV bear market resistance is worked off after an 21-week upleg. This is 7th test of that Big Resistance in course of past 2 years. Odds are that resistance brakes again for weeks, and even months! 21 Fib number is very important possible turn signal and this means: "Price meets time, a change in trend is imminent" W.D. Gann. And well, an expected quite normal correction cycle starting at this year high usually has to test back the rising weekly uptrend line that is dark-green highlighted above and near or close to the 14$ Gann number downmagnet for March 2019.


==> As its valid for the recently made 1331.10$ gold highs, also for silver this outcome is now valid:


We recognize an about 30% probability that silver just now, either at January, and/or February 2019 highs, prints it`s FINAL HIGH of this trading year.

 

To conclude the SLV sell-short setup, here is the evaluation of the maybe best, cause perhaps most riskless Sell-Short limit. For this we jump back to the now updated daily candlestick chart:

 

 

Classic SLV in the daily chart is now somewhat bearish although the above highlighted falling 2018 Main Resistance wasn`t reached or worked off precisely from below, as 2019 Top worked off MAJOR 2019 target resistance area that resides 15.15$ up to perhaps even a 15.30$.


After year high market began a daily downtrend, making lower highs and lower lows and lower closings. Downtrend is at day No. 8. Accordingly bounces should be now be sold.


A bounce in course of next trading week could test back the 15.05$. This is very interesting price. There opened the candle of the day on which the year's high was made.


The day before, SLV closed at 15.05$. The day after the achieved 2019 High market opened exactly at 15.05$. The 15.05$ are confirmed important Pivot for SLV!! And of course that's why 15.05$ now has morphed to a very important future horizontal resistance, that can be tested back soon!


And because of this observation I decided to recommend this:


==> 1:3-Sell-Limit order at 15.05$!


==> The daily and weekly uptrend has reached partially heavy overbought readings, and market has started to react to the falling Big, Big resistance and that`s why I expect that likely rolled over daily time frame needs another test of confirmed 1*1 Bull Angle support that springs from second made 13.11$ pillar of the Weekly Double Low pattern. The 1*1 Angle became confirmed daily main support after it was tested successfully at all the green ovals and thus is now an obvious = very attractive downtrend support magnet for the started downtrend. 1*1 Bull Angle might be tested back within 2 to 4 trading days AFTER advised sell-short level was hit.


And IF SLV has now started a down cycle or correction cycle on weekly base the daily 1*1 Bull Angle will be finally and decisively broken to the downside within next 10 trading days or so and as a consequence market should aim next important daily Gann Angle below 1*1 Angle which is the 1*2 Bull Angle within a perhaps 8 to 12 weeks running correction.


==> For March the confirmed weekly uptrend support and the confirmed daily 1*2 Bull Angle form price/time objective shy below 14$.


==> Thus, shortterm downtarget for SLV is 13.95$/March 2019!


Please place the Stop-Loss (SL) for a 15.05$-Sell-Short position at 15.25$. This is 6 cent above current 2019 High!


Risk = 0.20$. Potential reward = 1.30$. Risk-reward ratio 0.20/1.30 or 1:6.50


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Eduard Altmann