Yet again, a disillusioning and sobering week for all gold bugs who were hoping gold to get about in US$ after all.

I can’t count any longer how often the gold-fundamentalists’ dreams have been confounded by a couple of villains the last years.

In spite of all the overwhelming basic things speaking for gold and silver just right now, again and again the FED inclusive of the associated criminal bank trust cope with bringing gold and silver - on US$ base - down to earth. With regularity, the criminals manage time after time to drive the gold- and silver-bugs into the markets, spark hope and force the bulls to go long by means of certain chart signals, in order to negate then, at one blow, all the promising buy signals and newly to loot the gold- and silver-bugs’ accounts.

As analyzed at large in my gold forecast of 01/04/2015, during the coming months gold is going to look up the 1000$ and the 800$ as well, I apprehend. Even lower it goes if the FED wants it to.

Even though some nuclear bombs detonate in Ukraine within the coming fortnight, I cast doubt on gold seeing the 1340$ mark this year. The FED wants to and will keep on doing everything necessary to establish the US$ as the unique safe haven currency in the market, simultaneously soaking all the idiots who still believe they have to invest in gold (I’m throughout talking about gold in US$...!!), until all the gold-bugs rest in front of them, bled to death, and their cabbage thrown into the US treasury… depicted a little fulsomely.

In January 2015, gold delivered an actually beautiful buy signal that in a 95% of all cases is likely to have led to a lasting continuation in February in every other market in this world, no matter whether it would be individual stocks, indexes, forex, bonds etc. Not at all, it has in the American gold market, controlled and dominated by the FED:

 

 

 

At first, they pull gold over some important resistances at monthly closing – in this case the 2*1 Gann Angle, derived from the high of August 2011. Actually, therewith they generate a very sustainable buy signal on monthly base because for the first time since exactly 2 years again, in January 2015 gold closed – even far, far – above the 2*1 Gann Angle, technically being compellingly necessary a serious test of the next higher 1325-1322 GUNNER24 Resistance Horizontal.

Than it gets going however – after gold had been pulled up to the monthly close for the umpteenth time – that gold is being dumped down on the very first trading day of the new month.

All that is following a plan. I only ask myself what everything is looking like concretely, how is the collusive behavior. Is it via email, telephone conference, somebody saying: "let’s make gold dive again", in spite of all the fundamental pros for a rising gold price as bursting of the Eurozone, Grexit, Ukraine war, Syria, IS etc. Is there an American sitting around in front of a computer, still wearing pajama pants, having a cup of coffee in his left hand, starting to press the sell button punctually at 14:00 h German time = 13:00 h GMT+1 respectively London time (13:00 h GMT) respectively 8:00 h New York time. Who feeds perhaps high-frequency programs that cut loose striking out exactly at the very moment? Is it any specs freak with a dark brown briefcase?:

 

((Explanation of the illustration: From Tuesday till Friday of last week somebody/something started at 14:11 h, 14:27 h, 14:14 h and at 14:01 h (German time each) to press the gold future downwards until the respective daily lows were reached at 17:07 h, 16:37 h, 17:23 h and again at 17:07 h (German time each). After reaching the respective daily lows (Tuesday at 1255.80, Wednesday at 1259.50, Thursday at 1256.10, Friday at 1228.20) the Gold Future was allowed to rise again, until the following day…))

…or is it a London respectively Frankfurt banker who – after a comfortable, extensive meal with fish and chips or a Wiener Schnitzel with a double expresso – starts quite unbent at 14:00 h respectively 13:00 GMT scheduled for 2-3 hours to press the gold price down making millions this way? And then, at 16:30, 17:30 or so he shuts down his old PC because his job is done, takes off for his home with wife, 2 children and dog because the daily lows are brought in, all the other idiots being allowed to buy the gold market up again until he starts again the next day at 14:01 h to make millions with short-selling.

I ask myself, where are the judges and hangmen who pursue such obvious price manipulations. Do you think that you or I could rob the same bank or the same casino on four consecutive days always at the same time without being put back?

Just imagine the Blackjack player counting cards. He may do so once, maybe twice, but at the latest the third time, they get on to him. House ban for all the casinos of the world would be the consequence, wouldn’t it? Not so in the Gold and Silver Futures markets.

Who messes with villains trying to play with them is first being tarred, then feathered, then quartered, and then planted. Or you just play their play, dishonorable and without moral. That means however you are sitting in a boat with crooks… but at least I neither want to be nor to act like this. All the same, I’ve got to join the game – join the trend preset by the Big Boys with their comprehensive market prevalence, because I’ll go broke if I don’t. So shame on me…

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Gold closed Friday at 1233.30 after the daily low and thereby the February low had been made EXACTLY at the 2*1 Gann Angle at 1228.20.

Since the 2*1 Gann Angle was re-conquered in January 2015, the 2*1 Gann Angle should technically give strong support on monthly base after all. Technically – and at least merely technically – the 2*1 Gann Angle has become the yearly support for the entire 2015 as the metal succeeded to close above it in January 2015, for the first time in two years…

Since the 2*1 Angle is depicted by a line showing certain power that line, the 2*1 Angle is still a rather narrowly defined support area. In this case, I’d say that the support of the 2*1 Angle takes its course from 1229 to 1220 in February 2015.

The 1222 is well-known as an important GUNNER24 Pivot Horizontal on monthly and yearly base. This one comes into play again after the disillusioning February start. It intensifies the support function exerted by the 2*1 Angle between 1229 and 1220 for February in fact making the 1229 to 1220 mark become the important cross support for February 2015. So, technically gold should have to turn upwards again from there next week continuing its countertrend!

For sure it will, unless our banker with briefcase, wife, 2 children and dog who begins to press down the gold market in London or Frankfurt or New York at 14:00 h German time, simply keeps on next week as well. Because the FED tells him to or targets so, it does not matter whether it cracks in Ukraine, the Euro heads south, no matter, whether China’s, India’s, Russia’s or the Swiss central banks buy physically everything possible. The FED will reach the 1000$ mark as downtarget and work it off. At least:

 

 

In the end, at the highs January 2015 only tested back the former 1*1 Bull Market Angle that was finally broken on monthly closing base in September 2014. I think, the bad February start makes clear that the 1*1 was tested back at the January 2015 highs, obviously taking place a kiss of death there.

We remember: Above the 1*1 Angle in an up setup the market is in the bull region. If it trades below, it is in the bearish region of the setup. With this first back test, a negative one, at the January 2015 highs, the former 1*1 Bull Market Angle has now become the most important resistance for the gold market. The 1*1 Angle is the most important resistance for the entire year 2015 and the following years. The 1*1 Angle is at 1305 for February 2015.

Since the 1*1 Angle was broken downwards in September 2014, the next important lower important angle becomes the new target, according to W.D. Gann’s angle trading rules.

Since the first test of the 1*1 seems to have finally turned out negatively, as to the rules gold can respectively may swiftly gather pace to head for the minimum target of this bear ==> it’s the next lower important Gann Angle, the 2*1 Angle, called 2*1 Support Angle above. This 2*1 Support Angle takes course at 1000$-1040$ for the next months until the year end 2015.

So, either Option A) as early as the coming weeks it will swiftly go down to the present low of this bear = 1130! I think it will just take a weekly close below the important monthly 1229-1220 cross support to be the trigger for the quick reaching of the 1130 inclusive of the soon break of the 1130 and a further sell-off towards the 1000$ mark.

By all means, a February 2015 and/or a March 2015 close below the 1229-1220 will ring in this test of the 1130 inclusive the compellingly necessary break of the 1130.

Or Option B): the 1229-1220 holds the next and also the week after next enabling gold to get up again even to the 1325= horizontal resistance in the monthly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Down respectively to target/reach newly the 1*1 Bull Market Angle respectively the 1318 horizontal resistance in the monthly 9 Candle GUNNER24 Up.

Important in this context is also the 1322 GUNNER24 Horizontal = important monthly pivot. These 3 monthly magnets 1325, 1322, 1318 and in addition the 1*1 Bull Market Angle starting from the Lehman lows of the year 2008 are forming an enormously strong point of attraction for gold. Maybe gold wants to reach this strong monthly up magnet again before the trip towards the 1000$ may start.

Decision aid when exactly the trip towards the 1000$ will begin is given by this weekly down setup. It starts at the August 2011 highs showing us that in the weekly time frame gold is currently again in a countertrend that was released by a double arc support region:

 

 

As seen already at the 1st and the 2nd double arc, gold is forced upwards now by the support surroundings of the 3rd double arc respectively it has to experience a countertrend in the overriding bear market.

As seen at the 1st and also at the 2nd, gold is now trading on weekly base within the lines of a double arc. The 3rd double arc…

The space between the lines of the 3rd double arc has been offered support since about November and the November low of the year 2014 forcing gold upwards tediously. At the beginning of 2013, within the 1st double arc, it came to a 5 week countertrend up impulse without follow-through, then the support given by the space between upper and lower lines of the 1st exhausted. Subsequently, the lower line of the 1st collapsed, a sell signal arose, and the metal had to go lower.

Mid-2013, for 10 weeks gold was forced upwards by the space between upper and lower lines of the 2nd. Then also this countertrend up impulse and the support given by the space between the lines of the 2nd double arc exhausted, and subsequently the bear market had to go on.

Now – as yet for 14 weeks – the space between the upper and the lower lines of the 3rd has been supported. From the November 2014 low until the January 2015 high, we recognize a 12 week countertrend up-move followed by the last two candle correction.

As seen already at the 1st and the 2nd double arcs, with the highs of January 2015, after 12 weeks the whole countertrend may have finished keeping on gold falling until sometime a weekly close below the lower line of the 3rd gives the "official signal" that the countertrend has actually come to an end with the January 2015 highs. A clear weekly close below the lower line of the 3rd would namely give the sell signal for the next lower double arc support – the 4th double arc, not visible in the chart above – to have to be headed for.

Quite coincidentally, the lower line of the 3rd support is exactly at 1222 for next week. 1222 is thereby weekly support and additionally monthly cross support, just as worked out above with the first monthly GUNNER24 Setup.

Thus, if as early as next week the 1229-1220 support region breaks, we’ll have the signal that next up the 1130 bear lows will be supposed to be tested.

Well, as also mentioned already, 1229-1220 is likewise support on monthly base, even yearly base, and thereby it may technically hold triggering the next last important up-leg of this countertrend.

This one may reach then the 1318-1325 triple up magnet on monthly base till March 2015.

This last countertrend move might unfold about the way depicted with the blue forecast. Since gold is definitely in a countertrend, the lower line support of the 3rd might not hold breaking any time. Therewith gold may start to target the 1130.

It might happen next week because the 1229-1220 does not hold, the week after next in case of a higher make-or-break mark or at the beginning of March for instance… Mind about this the red dotted red arrows… if the lower line of the 3rd breaks on weekly closing base, the way downwards will begin.

At the latest after reaching the 1318-1325 triple up magnet till the end of March 2015 this countertrend will end. Subsequently, at first the 1130 should be reached, then the 1000$ worked off. If the 1000$ breaks on monthly base till September 2015, reckon with 800$ till beginning of 2016.

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Be prepared!

 

Eduard Altmann