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Palladium metal is under Russian supply control since Russia is the main producer. The Western economic sphere and especially the western car makers have to pay for it especially during these turbulent war times, when the entire Europe and the US are engaged in increasingly intense political battles with the Russians.
Very shortly after the official start of the Ukraine/Russia war - in the course of March 2022 - a truly historic panic movement ended as the PALL ETF reached another small higher alltime-high (ATH) of 298.21$.
Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) tracks the palladium spot price, less trust expenses, using palladium bullion held in London and Zurich is really the only game in town if you want focused palladium exposure in an ETF:
The weekly chart of the PALL shares shows that the 2022 ATH formed as a typical spike high, or the textbook final bullish exhaustion of a rally (sharp & quick advance) cycle that started at the final low of 2021, that was made in course of December 2021. The 2022 ATH failed in overcoming the multi-yearslong holding rising dark-red dotted main resistance rail and the “round” 300$ W.D. Gann resistance number.
The correction starting at the 2022 ATH finally ended at # 1 // June 2022 lows and a 165.87$. Since then, a rising and quite narrow Rising Channel is forming on the weekly chart, which has very good chances to hold until at least the end of the year and to determine the market maybe even into 2023.
Because now with the official September closing auction, the weekly Slow Stokes oscillator managed to break out of a small Bull Flag (orange-dotted). This is not only a momentum buy signal on a weekly but also on a monthly basis. But not only because of this, PALL ETF could possibly continue to rise steadily within potential Rising Channel until the end of the year.
Also our GUNNER24 Forecasting Method provided a combined weekly & monthly long signal at the official close of September 2022.
See now here. We place a classic weekly 5-Fib number Candle GUNNER24 Up at the # 1-June 2022 lows reached.
... and recognize that the last trading week of September 2022 closed above the Blue Arc what means a stronger weekly buy signal which at the same time also represents a somewhat weaker buy signal on a monthly basis, since the closing auction of the last trading week also meant the closing price of the entire month of September.
This week candle course confirmed this combined weekly & monthly PALL long signal as this week high 100% accurately and finally worked off the activated natural uptarget of the upper line of 1st double arc at the small red resistance arrow.
Watch, that 1*1 Gann Angle out of # 1 // 165.87$ // June 2022 Low works as the double positive-tested strongest main support of this weekly upward cycle. Its course thus represents the lower Rising Channel support, so to speak.
This for now, regarding the last bullish developments and quite positive main signals, which quite justify that PALL can/may reach the important price/time magnet of the lower line of 2nd double arc & late-December 2022 ITL (orange-dotted important time line) at around 230.00$ by the end of the year.
==> Shortterm uptarget for PALL shares is the 230.00$, what is expected to be worked off towards end of December 2022!
Now I would like to continue with the possible short-term developments that can be derived from this setup.
The week high - a next perfect spike high, or another short-term bullish exhaustion sign -, right at the upper line of 1st resistance from below is a strong hint that the daily uptrend has stalled for longer at this week 218.24$ high and the fact that A) the lilac-ovaled upside gap at this week highs has been filled and in addition B) the otherwise so important 2*1 Gann Angle main resistance directly from the ATH is now tested negatively, make me strongly believe that PALL will next have to retest and probably even fully fill its just torn upside gap on a monthly opening basis.
Such behaviour would also mean the classic retest of the important future round 200$ support rail.
The torn monthly September/October upward gap spans from 200.88$ (September 2022 close) to a 207$ (October 2022 opening auction).
Normally, this gap magnet together with the 200$ support now signifiesa very strong future support magnet on a combined weekly and monthly basis. Therefore, it should be profitable to long PALL shares near this mathematical support zone, or at a normally only short-lived undercut of the 200$ support threshold.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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