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We can recall that when a trend acts mostly choppy, overlapping and volatile for longer, it is usually trapped inside an Elliott corrective wave 4/IV. And in the very big picture since August 2020 alltime-highs, the gold is still trapped within a long-lasting, but rather only more or less sideways-trending corrective cycle.
Longer-lasting more or less just sideways-oriented corrective trends is one of the many courses the Elliott Wave Correction Pattern wave 4/IV allows. Whereby these waves 4`s have an important main task, namely to pull the money out of the traders and investors pockets again and again. Fooling and trapping both sides at all times, forcing bulls and bears into losing trades until one may give up in frustration or eventually find the big position on the wrong side of the market.
Correction waves 4/IV need a lot of patience.
And now this wave nerve-wracking IV on the gold charts is longer than a year.
And as has been the case for longer time, I am also very hesitant this time to recommend a safe trading recommendation. Simply because in a wave 4/IV when a stop loss is set for safety, the success rate of a trading recommendation is usually only just above the 50%.
With lower line of 2nd beeing general main support for months and upper line of 2nd acting as strongly confirmed 2021 main resistance.
There never was a week close above that upper line of 2nd yearly main resistance UNTIL FRIDAY!
Therefore, a very bullish signal has emerged in terms of TIME & PRICE, which started with this week`s opening auction, as the resistance of the upper line of 2nd double arc was already skipped to the upside at the official opening of the week.
This week fired weekly GUNNER24 Buy Candle is the first stronger one since the beginning of 2021!
Thus, according to the rules of the GUNNER24 Trading Method, FIRST the next hit and backtest of the downward red-dotted ATH resistance rail is activated at a 233.20$ with a probability of +95%!
And SECONDLY, the NEXT WEEKLY CLOSE at or very close to the red-dotted ATH resistance line will activate this future monthly uptarget, which could then be finally worked off until the end of 2021:
With this measurement, the Blue Arc (first up impulse) and the most recent lower high of September 3rd are in harmony in terms of price and time. The lower line of 1st uptarget resistance energy triggered the underway daily and weekly downtrend cycle for sure.
This view offers that the gold at this week opening auction was finally able to overcome the Blue Arc resistance which by this morphed to a daily support rail what became strongly confirmed by the sighting that all 5 trading days of the week show a successful backtest of that Blue Arc support. Monday open is shy above Blue Arc. Tuesday close is nearly exactly at Blue Arc support from above. Wednesday to Friday closings are sitting shy above Blue Arc, and all the 5 past days made their lows below the downward sloping daily Blue Arc support.
Or, within daily 7 Candle Daily up the Blue Arc offers falling daily arc resistance. Within daily 5 Candle up there is a falling Blue Arc which provides backtest support for 5 days in row. And all this mixed environment and signal situation arises directly from the first move after the August 2021 spike low.
Regarding the probably very much to be expected next retracement or the next retest of the falling neares annual support line, the above 5 candle GUNNER24 UP enlightens me a bit more, as we can even identify an extremely rare 5-fold upward magnet for the turn of the month October to November.
With regard to the certainty expected, imminent next processing/backtest of the falling nearest annual resistance line enlightens me the above 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up a little more! Provides a little more certainty than the other about the assumed short-term main upward target of the current daily upcycle, as we can even identify an extremely rare 5-fold price/time upward magnet MAJOR resistance when the month changes from October to November at exactly the 1792$.
At 1792$ towards end of October to beginning of November unites the next due orange intermediate time line (time factor) & the always important 1*1 Gann Angle, the first square line & the big natural backtest uptarget of the lower line of 1st double arc an the major backtest magnet of the falling annual resistance. And since 5-fold upmagnet resistances can of course be more important than 4-fold resistance magnets, it may well be that gold will not even reach the round 1800$ at its next possible daily cycle top, but may become very bearish again before then at around the MAJOR 1792$.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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