Gold and silver check

The seeds are sown. You might also say: Dinner is served! Again, gold and silver seem to follow exactly the seasonal trend, well-known for decades, that says: A significant low in October, followed by a 4-5 month rally, until it gets to a significant high in January/February of the next year, followed by a several week consolidation/correction in the upwards trend:

(Source: www.mrci.com)

But the 5, 15 and 30 year patterns also show us that an interim high uses to slow down the year-end rally by the middle to the end of November. Then comes a 2-3 week correction before the second leg of the year-end rally begins, followed by the significant high in January/February.

Let’s align now the seasonal patterns with the actual gold and silver GUNNER24 Setups in order to fathom out the targets, the optimum entries and exits and the timing for the gold rally as well as the expected silver ascent – for the next months I wouldn’t short the precious metals but at best on daily basis, with very narrow stop-losses!

„The trend is your friend“. You get most benefit out of the trend if you join it being concentrated upon the best possible entry into the current trend, accumulating your positions at striking lows or breakouts, usefully reducing those positions again in case of possible highs – without following your personal motives such as action-obsession or the compulsion to exploit each and every little mini counter-trend move…

The significant close above the 3rd double arc in the actual weekly setup makes clear that some new all-time highs in gold are due. After the re-conquest of the 3rd double arc, now the 4th double arc became the target. A significant close above a double arc always activates the following double arc towards the trend to become the next target: 1940 – period of time the end of January/beginning of February.

On weekly basis, the next resistance is not to be made out before 1853. So it is pretty likely that this resistance horizontal (upper limit of the actually passed square) is going to be headed for by the current weekly initial impulse.

Let’s recall this: ALL the horizontal, diagonal, square lines, blue arc and ALL the double arcs within the GUNNER24 Setups are magnets that attract the market. They’re natural points of attraction… and at each magnet the decision is made case by case whether the market wants to rebound from the magnet or the existing trend is determined to re-accelerate.

The conduct at the 3rd double arc is telling us how powerful the actual trend is. With extreme ease gold took – or re-conquered – that really very strong resistance. Without any visible rebound gold is cutting through the 3rd double arc like a sharp knife cuts a piece of butter.

Thereby we’re getting aware of one thing: When the current weekly initial impulse is retraced after its development the 3rd double arc shall provide a very strong support, and furthermore we’ll be able to work on the assumption that a possible retracement wouldn’t surpass 1750-1740. Technically the 3rd double arc can just be tested during an expected retracement, it cannot be re-broken downwards again.

The actual initial impulse is entering into its eighth week. According to the Fibonacci count we’ll have to expect an end of the initial impulse for next week (with a probability of an 85% the initial impulses last 1,2,3,4,5,8,13 or 21 etc. time units). So far each of the last 7 weeks produced a higher high. That’s what coming week is supposed to do as well, therefore. We’ll have to observe the next two weeks very well. Exhaustion high in the eighth, a higher high in the ninth week would point to a 13! candle initial impulse, a lower high in the ninth week would point to a retracement until 1740 at most…

Anyhow the state of the actual weekly initial impulse indicates that it is corresponding with the seasonal pattern of gold: Next week or the week after next an interim high, then a 2-3 week retracement.

For the fine-tuning or confirmation of the expected highs next week or the week after next let’s have a brief look at the daily 2 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup:

As analyzed, last Monday we covered our daily long position. It was obvious that the 2nd double arc at 1800 represented a very strong resistance! Within the GUNNER24 Gold Trader on Thursday we newly entered into the longs, exactly at the support Gann Angle.

This is for all the Gold Traders and the Member Area Traders: Please wait out your covering at the lower line of the 2nd double arc (it’s situated at 1792 for Monday)!

The reason: Up to now we don’t see a daily close within the lines of the 2nd double arc. But since Friday was that strong and since that strength is supposed to persist until Tuesday we should have to see a close within the lines of the 2nd double arc. And such a close will activate at least the 1824 as to be the next target (for Wednesday/Thursday). An opening above 1792 and in particular a dwelling of the market above 1792 during the first couple of trading hours would facilitate in any case a higher high than the one we saw last week (1804.4), as early as Monday or Tuesday, respectively!

Each day-closing price within the lines of the 2nd double arc next week will be extremely positive for the long-term price course, it will facilitate either the 1824 or the 1853-1858 area corresponding with the strong weekly 1853 magnet. The rule: The same target in two different time frames makes that target likely to be reached!

In silver, too, everything is prepared for another rise. The actual weekly and monthly setups show us that important double arcs were re-conquered – thus the next higher double arcs are activated as to be the respective targets being headed for with a 70% of probability. Certainly silver isn’t indicating a new all-time high. But, like in gold, a 10-15% rise from current levels is to be expected before the trend may change again in January/February.

Monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up:

The last time we analyzed this monthly setup was on 10/02/2011. Then we observed that the September low was certainly significant and that a re-conquest of the 3rd double arc would make the 4th double arc at 37-38$ become the next important target. We see October achieved that re-conquest. – Thus the 38$ were confirmed to be the next important target. Now the 3rd double arc is a strong support being assumed to stop any decline/retracement on daily or weekly basis at 32$ at the latest. What here in the upper setup attracts attention – it’s very, very uncommon – is that silver has been orienting itself by the diagonals of the respecting passed squares for as long as 7 months. These ones clearly demonstrate some visible supports and resistances concerning the respective monthly highs and lows but also the monthly-closing prices – and that’s very, very uncommon, as well.

Also the actual November candle is fighting with an important resistance diagonal that is passing at 34.75. That means for us: Each November close above this resistance diagonal would be a clear indication that the 38$ will have to be headed for.

Weekly 21 Candle GUNNER24 Up:

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