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At the beginning of 2021 and fired by the turn of the year time event we unfortunately had to recognise that gold delivered a classic bull trap and produced an important countertrend top very early in the year.
In course of March 2021 the MAJOR YEARLY GUNNER24 Support Horizontal at 1672$ was nearly exactly backtested and out of a daily and small weekly Double Bottom combination the gold started a nice uptrend what now has met the monthly Handle formation, which has been affecting the price of gold for 10 months now.
The monthly Handle resistance is a relatively steep rail. It is alltime-high (ATH) resistance and a lower year high resistance til today:
To call the entire correction cycle starting at 2020 ATH to be officially over and a next big 5 to 12-month bull market leg with a higher safety underway we have to wait for 2 consecutive weekly closings resp. the very first monthly close above the ATH resistance rail. Think, the 10-month Handle resistance would only be “officially” overcome when gold tomorrow ends the May above 1915$, or so.
Does gold has to finish the uptrend cycle and then turn bearish from here, because the monthly Handle resistance means both, a perfectly-confirmed alltime-high, as well as a lower year highs resistance rail?
Or is it possible to finally overcome this really massive wall of resistance at the undway second test attempt? So actually, based on charttechnical experience, it seems almost impossible to overcome the Handle resistance within a second attempt.
==> Such sharp-confirmed hard resistances tend to break finally only at third, fourth or even fifth attempt (rule of 3 and 4...). And this is a reason why the Gold Bugs should now close their long positions respectively it is advisable to reduce longs considerably now.
Hhm, usually at least the 1822$ yearly GUNNER24 Horizontal Support should be revisited within a 3 to 5 weeks time window IF the monthly Handle resistance will be able to release stronger bearish forces again (orange arrow). For this likelihood we analyze the weekly upcycle what started at # 1-March 2021 Low, what at same time is the so far 2021 Low. At that point it is allowed to anchor this classic 8 Fib number weekly GUNNER24 Up Setup:
The setup shows that the penultimate week candle was a next official GUNNER24 Buy Signal what activated the work off of the lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget in trend direction. This weekly uptarget with a 100% precision is hit at this past week candle top (1913.3$), made on Wednesday.
The weekly upcycle with NEXT week candle is at week No. 13 and maybe this due 13 Fib number time magnet has to force the metal into the final top of this upcycle. On weekly base GUNNER24 allows that the upcycle could finally top at the 1922$ GUNNER24 MAJOR YEARLY Resistance Horizontal because this is for ever 2011 ATH magnet rail and a natural horizontal resistance out of the # 1 // March 2021 Low on weekly base. Above on the weekly chart the 1922$ springs from the highest price of the lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget what now is a confirmed resistance as this past week top arrived there and the metal wasn`t able to overcome the lower line of 2nd on weekly closing base.
But of course it is also allowed that the final upcycle high was found at thia past week 1913.3$ top as there the 10-month ATH Handle resistance unites with the above lower line of 2nd double arc.
By the way, we are fully aware that month end & month start TIME MAGNETS often trigger important extremes, especially in the Precious Metals sector... !!!! So gold could finally top tomorrow May 31 and/or June 1 or within the May 31 to June 1 time window...
If gold starts a retracement here at combined ATH & 10-month Handle & lower year highs & weekly cross resistance magnet what probably extends to the 1922$ horizontal it usually has to test back the weekly 2*1 Angle & 1st double arc support cushion & 1822$ yearly support horizontal => big & obvious pullback support magnet within maybe 5 week candles (orange arrow option) before another, the third serious run into the monthly Handle resistance is likely to start from there.
==> Maybe a traditional summer doldrums low has to be set near the 1822$ support magnet attraction sometime in course of July?
==> Think, two consecutive weekly closings above 1922$ til end of June would also have broken the monthly ATH-Handle resistance finally. In such a very bullish resolution the MAJOR 2022$ backtest horizontal becomes nearest important uptarget magnet for gold and usually will be worked off within a then to the 21 Fib number oriented weekly upcycle.
This monthly upcycle, will work through the Handle resistance, which has now been reigning for 10 months and the 1922$ still on yearly closing base not overcome resistance horizonal. This is almost 100% certain. The key question remains: WHEN???
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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