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Shortly after May 1st fresh made 2019 High, that at same time represents current alltime-high (ATH), we sniffed that something should have changed at extreme, cause S&P 500 e-mini futures contract (ES #) at ATH the price (natural alltime-high horizontal resistance) has met time and this often leads to a change in trend.
The past 5 days the stock market bears have delivered and we have full confirmation that the trend at ES # 2961.25 pts alltime-high ATH has changed, because since market fires lower daily highs and lower lows on daily base.
This is the definition of a downtrend.
After investors have experienced multiple days of sell-offs and failed rallies on Friday, however, the most prevalent fever thermometer mounted a stunning bullish reversal into daily chart.
And this, after the easy-to-identify and thus obvious downtarget magnet of a corrective move was finally worked off.
Looking at the chart below, it`s clear the within past week GUNNER24 Newsletter "Now or Never, dear Stock Market Bears" - click here to re-read full article... -, identified 2838 pts major pullback target offered heavy support in the end:
In my 05/05 forecast I announced that a downtrend should be a short-lived one, which just should run 2 to 3 week candles or 10 to 15 trading days and according price usually has to fill the very important March 2019 closing gap that stands 2837.75 pts.
Mission accomplished. Exactly at Thursday lows - Thursday was day # 7 of pullback.., and on Friday, the 8th Fib number day of the pullback, the bears began to cry after successful gap fill.
This kick save is important because it occured A) on a Friday, thus influencing the weekly chart state and B) bounce starting at expected strong 2019 support on the 8th Fib number day of the pullback cycle telegraphs that a low of some importance is now made.
Cause March 2019 closing auction was widely overcome by April 2019 close this gap downmagnet morphed to very strong support for the weeks and months to come, and became ideal, cause most natural backtest target of a perhaps just 2 to 3 weeks lasting pullback within year 2019 very strong uptrend wave.
Watch, that # 8-Friday spike low additionally and very successfully tested back 2018 Triple Top support from above. 2018 Triple Top according rules is another horizontal support area on yearly base.
Well, at least short-term lows seem to be made cause yearly support is successfully tested on the 8th Fib day of the cycle = time met price = turn and that`s why the next test of lower line of 2nd double arc main uptarget - for now very strong down-wards sloping daily resistance - within ruling daily 21 Candle up, that starts measuring at 2018 Low is now mandatory.
==> ES # should test again sinking lower line of 2nd upmagnet resistance at latest UNTIL Wednesday-Thursday somewhere at 2909-2916 points.
BUUUUT IF # 8-Friday low marked the the final low of the pullback cycle next week`s important lower line of 2nd double arc main resistance will be finally overcome on daily closing base until May, 21!! and this would be confirmation for that the next daily upcycle with uptarget 3000-3020 points/in course of June 2019 started at # 8-Friday spike low.
==> GUNNER24 Method would press the long button on a daily close above 2920 pts and again above 2962 pts...
... for a 3000 to 3020 upcycle top that is activated weekly GUNNER24 Uptarget, best seen above with the help of the valid weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup.
Setup starts measuring upward at # 1-2018 Low and projects a work off of upper line of 2nd double arc uptarget and rising ATH Upmagnet Resistance in trend direction. Both together forming major 2019 uptarget magnet which is 3000-3020 pts, which usually will be worked off and first time tested from below sometimes in course of June 2019.
However, if the current main resistance of lower line of 2nd double arc within daily 21 Candle up resists again in the course of the next week and puts strong bearish pressure, there is the possibility that the pullback cycle at # 8-Friday low hasn`t delivered its final low and maybe will test 2838 yearly support magnet once again in further course of May, or even worse for the bulls could test the daily 1*1 Bull Market Angle out of # 1-final low of 2018 at around "round" 2800 pts support magnet towards end of May.
Daily 1*1 Bull Market Angle is most important yearly 2019 support rail below yearly 2838 pts support horizontal!
Now please have another look on weekly chart above and anchored weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup and please focus on this week candle which is No. 20 of 2019 rally cycle and 2 Fib number of pullback.
First important according count = time factor, is that 20 is close enough to 21, possible Fib turn number, to signal the end of the enitre daily pullback cycle, although week closed deeeep red and fired a bearish reversal. Thus, week # 20 may have formed a next important higher 2019 cycle low, especially when we look at the week`s developments in the GUNNER24 Context:
1. Week lows have very successfully tested back previously finally overcome 1st double arc.
2. # 20 formed very bullish looking spike low that turned at natural weekly 1st double arc support area. This is what a very successful test of a likely very important = strong support, looks like.
3. We know at 2838 starts major support on yearly base and together with weekly 1st double arc support market bounced at combined weekly and yearly GUNNER24 Support Magnet.
4. All together: If you ask me this low looks like a "classic or textbook" backtest of very important = strong 2019 support area. Consequently pullback should have ended and in further course the activated GUNNER24 Uptarget of lower line of 2nd double arc should be aimed next and perhaps upper line of 2nd uptarget work off will be due June somewhere at 3000 to 3020 pts!
Within chart I noted that a streched, 3 to 5 week, pullback cycle towards end of May could test back the weekly 1st double arc one more time or more often and perhaps will be able to print lower pullback cycle lows near 2800 pts combined weekly and daily support magnet.
Bulls notice this: ONLY the very first week close below 2775 pts would be a very first serious GUNNER24 Sell Short signal. Such a week close in course of May officially activates the backtest of 2670 to 2650 pts/summer 2019.
However, the odd is that ES # will be able to work off the HEAVY BIG ROUND 3000 pts W.D. Gann number BULL MARKET UPMAGNET in course of June 2019!
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Eduard Altmann
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