The much-cited Gold Triangle

For a month, gold has been trading in a very narrow range from 1283$ to 1310$. There is a variety of things taking place below the surface of the gold market calm this month. This superficial calm is assumed to clear space for a drastic price move down or upwards the coming days, when gold breaks out of its current triangle.

A break through the triangle support at 1283 is possible. This might lead gold to fall – in the secular bull market – below its previous course low of the correction running since 2011, to test the 1200-1180 region again. That is likely to happen in case the too regular, seasonal weakness of the coming 4-6 weeks prevails. The keyword is summer doldrums…

However, if the physical demand rises, due to the geopolitical tensions, Europe’s swing to the right, and the revival of the Indian gold purchases tracing to the ease of the Indian import duties, gold might test quickly its monthly GUNNER24 Main Resistance at 1372$ as well.

In chart-technical respect, the current triangle pattern may be interpreted as a consolidation in the daily uptrend running since 01/01/2014, but as well as a bearish formation in the overriding weekly downtrend running since September 2011.

If ultimately the force of the short-term daily uptrend prevails above the long-term weekly downtrend, the upwards break will follow. If the triangle is taken downwards during the coming days, the weekly downtrend will have won being likely to be re-tested the 1200-1180 during the coming weeks. In this case, the triangle will have to be interpreted as the half-way pattern of the down move that began by the middle of March.

The daily gold uptrend disposes thoroughly of considerable power in 2014 - in terms of price as well as fundamentally. Anyway, in 2014 gold is performing out the US stock markets distinctly. Even though gold has been treading water for perceived months, there is a permanent bashing, the US Major Indexes keep on producing one all-time high after another in 2014, and the analysts as well as the media parties just act in a pushing and euphoriant way, by a look at the absolute performance of 2014 things are relativized. Taking last Friday as deadline, gold has risen by a +7.48% in 2014 whereas the S&P 500 has dragged itself about with a plus of 2.8%...

The geopolitical influences – mainly Ukraine/Crimea – as well as the gold + silver manipulations by the leading western Big Players = US/GB/EU banks leaking out increased, i.e. getting public, and the fact that Russia has been interfering reinforced into the so far western-dominated and –controlled gold-, palladium, and platinum-markets, seem to lead to the circumstance that the frequently inflating US Hedge Funds reflect thoroughly at present that further concerted short-attacks would not be crowned with success, in short- and long-term respect.

Currently, the US Hedge Funds are running scared to be caught on the wrong foot somehow in the gold- and silver market, as to my impression. All those Americans are avoiding risks. Their financial preparation makes them always do safe things and bet on safe things only. For the last decades, in the gold- and silver market they have been acting in an environment they could control and determine absolutely.

Its manipulation in the conspirator’s slang. Yet the truth, I mean the US American truth, has always implied that most money is made where control is largest. If they lose control on their “home markets” – due to of geopolitical, economic or governmental influences – like hell they will accept risky bets. For safe actions only, they are trimmed and trained. Even so the US boys, i.e. the US Hedge Funds, FED and the big US banks this year are playing in addition against Russia in the precious-metal area. China has been the most active counter-part of the Americans for years in the gold market, after all.

Although Putin says that Russia is not playing in the financial markets, in my opinion indeed they do. For sure, Russia is selling US bonds in 2014. These statistics are well known, and Brussels has to support already.

Wherever Putin is able to, he assigns the price rise respectively support measures of the precious metals because thereby the avails for his “empire” is increased. Platinum and Palladium, both being still much narrower markets than gold and silver, are pointing pitilessly upwards since February. Since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis they are, higher highs and lower lows in 2014 = uptrend on weekly and daily base are to be seen. Since Russia has up to a 50% of market participation in both metals, the higher PA and PL prices are flowing directly into Russia’s pockets.

I think, this is why he – Putin - is actively supporting in gold and silver as well, consequently. 100-200$ less in gold and the 16$ in silver would hit his “empire” sensitively. Russia’s economic increase would cave in damageably thus weakening “him” in his office and making him attackable.

Ergo: If I were a hedge fund, I would really think ten times before betting against Russia combined with China during the coming weeks.

==> All right, it is thoroughly possible that the gold and silver summer doldrums are cancelled completely this year and even that gold and silver will break out upwards the week after next.