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When we hear a market shouting loud: „Buy me now and immediately...“, we may already check this with the GUNNER24 Methods in order to protect ourselves twice.
Nearly one full year has passed since we last looked at the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) to foresee its midterm direction and the likely developments of the Gold Miners in general. At the end of April 2020 (free GUNNER24 Forecasts, Issue 04/26/2020 – click here on blue or on chart below to re-read that forecast), we realized the Miners are breaking above their Neckline resistance horizontal of an unusual mighty bottoming pattern what is a very-complex monthly SSS-H-SSS bottom wich is the basement of a DECADElong Cup pattern, likely under construction:
==> April 2020 quite safe DECADE SSS-H-SSS & Cup bottom breakout signal triggered with first uptarget at 37.80$ for May 2020 and obvious MAJOR uptarget at 39.50$, what is a big horizontal resistance still reigning on CENTURY base. Additionally the hefty GDX-Neckline-long signal fired that the market with a 70% probability would have to test at least the „round“ 40$ within breakout cycle and should print its final year 2020 highs around the 41.10$, what was an activated GUNNER24 Up Magnet target on the monthly chart.
It was also analyzed that regarding the time the underway overall bull market cycle could last til summer 2020 until the GDX should find important intermediate cycle highs caused by the mostly always trend influencing monthly 55 Fib number.
Finally the 2020 top was printed at a 45.78$ in course of August. This year high is a 7-year top and therefore the highest price of running 2020-2029 DECADE window and together with the 2011 alltime-high (ATH) forms nearest most attractive backtest magnet for GDX ETF cause it is a falling resistance line on DECADE base.
The current bull market cycle started at the most right shoulder of the SSS-H-SSS bottom what is the famous 2020 coronavirus-panic low. The now in the making March 2021 candle is the 13th month candle of that bullish cycle, and at same time is the 8th candle of a correction what started at the August 2020 candle.
In my opinion, the next intermediate higher bull market low is very close and perhaps is even finally in because a bunch of usually heavy supports is now tested.
First, there is the possible bottoming signal that time emits = TIME SUPPORT! And the time factor, as we know from past experience, can very often be the most dominant trigger for the trend reversal:
The March 2021 candle offers that a so called 8/13 Fibonacci number turnaround could be in the making! The 13 month candle of the bull cycle could deliver a final intermediate cycle low or an important higher bull market low because it is also the 8th month candle of a correction.
GDX corrective cycle also has now reached a key support level what is formed by 3 different MAJOR supports.
The DECADE SSS-H-SSS neckline, former main resistance horizontal, now usually future horizontal support line. USUALLY the DECADE SSS-H-SSS neckline horizontal should radiate strong support on yearly base.
At this month lows - at 30.64$, so far – the DECADElong Cup support could already have been tested back. And well, the DECADElong Cup support is of course strongest possible longterm support for the Miners ETF.
March low perhaps has very successfully tested the quite normal 50% Fib support retracement level from 2020 Spike-Low to 2020 top bull market cycle what runs for ever at the 30.98$. 50% Fib support retracement is another support rail on the highly important yearly base.
OF COURSE, and possibly even mandatory, this very prominent retracement level has to be reached before this correction cycle can come to an end. However, the 8th candle of the correction cycle & the 13th candle of the bull market cycle is at triple support magnet => therefore at a MOST ideal backtest point regarding time and price and with the price factor now at triple yearly/DECADE support magnet, the time signals the imminent trend change.
Last but not least Dear Traders, note carefully below that the GUNNER24 Method offers that the lows of last February and the lows of this March candle seem to make resp. show the classic backtest of a monthly GUNNER24 Double Arc from above. There is also a major GUNNER24 Support Level in play right now getting tagged:
This is another good reason for GLD ETF to reverse any day (or hour) now cause it might possibly find final correction lows, a next higher bull market low and even the final lows of the entire 2021!
The above at # 1 // final bear market low of the year 2016 anchorable monthly up setup is a classic 8 Fib number up what among other important stuff signaled bull market problems starting at the natural lower line of 2nd double arc uptarget.
And there it was where the bull market cycle maxed out at the top of the 56th bull market candle, what is 56 - 1 = 55 Fib number, what in this case was indeed a major time turn number, signaling an important midterm/longterm bull market top in place.
==> The # 56-final high of 2020 at 45.78$ is an 100% accurate negative backtest of the lower line of 2nd double arc. This is why this lower line of 2nd double arc is very interesting = strong future resistance rail and above all the most interesting nearest backtest rail for the GDX regarding time and price.
Therefore, the market may have to test back this lower line of 2nd „relatively quickly“ and cumpulsive, and this may well happen later this year at the 42$ surroundings as there the lower line of 2nd together with the natural horizontal out of the highest price of the upper line of 1st (42.10$) forms very interesting monthly backtest magnet at that 42$ for the late-summer 2021.
The lower line of 2nd is now a downward oriented confirmed-strong main resistance on yearly base, but also it should radiate negative energy on DECADE base until overcome on a monthly closing base.
I think, because of this rather high bearish energy status of the lower line of the 2nd kicking in at a final year high there has now been such a full-blown correction cycle in the bull market. Long and deep. But there's nothing unusual about that corrective cycle when we look at it with the help of the GUNNER24. GUNNER24 tells us that this 8 months downer should be a quite normal corrective move within an ongoing bull market because it exactly started at a lower double arc rail and IDEALLY is now testing the former breakout point of the upper line of 1st from above and shows consecutive month lows along above the upper line of 1st main support and once the backtesting period of the upper line of 1st double arc is over price should go further up again for the classic, textbook retest of the lower line of 2nd!
==> My hard call is that the GDX ETF is now finally looking attractive on the charts as it has arrived at a triple yearly/DECADE support magnet and a change in trend is imminent. Likely from the final lows of this March 2021 here at current 31.50$-30.50$ it will at least bounce back into 42$ year 2021 main resistance upmagnet until August to September 2021!
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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