Fine tuning for uptargets

The cyclic stocks took the helm in US. As to the rule of thumb, these ones use to perform out defensive stocks when the economy booms and in the phase of rising interests. During a boom the cyclic ones profit disproportionately by rising demand. With rising interest rates yield stable and high dividend stocks lose attractiveness. The very first interest rate hike step is going to happen quite surely as early as in 2015. The tech-stocks as well as the small- and mid-caps are now anticipating the conceivable beginning of the rate hike…:

Source: www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/leaders?type=pl&cat=ytd&view=chart

… and clearly performing out the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. This gap is technically supposed to keep on opening until the rate hike. Well, since this gap is now showing respectively opening, I’ll have to correct a little bit downwards the possible course/development of the S&P 500 regarding the expected spring uptargets.

In the free GUNNER24 Forecasts of 02/22/2015, I committed myself rather unambiguously to the 2145 points to be reached compulsorily till the trading week of March 16-20. The index was very likely to go to 2152 and even to overshoot up to the 2160. Now, the market is at 2108 approaching the end of March. If the market had performed just remotely as the NASDAQ-100 and the small- and mid-caps did – about +5% instead of the attained +2,6% of annual return – we would have been allowed to state the 2145 target and even the 2152 target to be worked off with today: 2108 + 2.4% of plus-performance = 2108 points + 50 index points = 2158 index points:

The S&P 500 is underperforming respectively limping. That leads to the following adjustment of the uptarget:

Uptarget for the spring rally is and remains being the upper line of the 3rd double arc in the currently dominating monthly 13 candle up.

The upper line of the 3rd double arc takes its course at 2145 points for the month of March 2015. This upper line of the 3rd double arc is the next higher magnet for the index after having been overcome the resistance-function of the lower line of the 3rd double arc by the February close.

Even though the US stock markets altogether and also the S&P 500 keep on being supported positively in seasonal terms till about the end of April 2015, and until they should have to take the next break in the uptrend, I suppose that the S&P 500 is not able to work off the upper line of the 3rd double arc within the coming – and last – 7 trading days. In front of the upper line of the 3rd double arc, there is still the 2119 all-time high produced in February. Simply too little time is left to break upwards significantly within these last March trading days, because experience has shown – even in the very strongest breakout move phase – the markets always have to struggle at important tops before such important resistances are being cracked.

Ergo, the upper line of the 3rd cannot be reached before the course of the month of April 2015, technically. The upper line of the 3rd is taking its course at 2140 for April! Thereby the next minimum uptarget fot the market:

==> April 2015 according to time and 2140 according to price.

As expounded in detail already in the free GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 02/22/2015, the upper line of the 3rd should have to be overshoot a little bit. We gain this realization from the existing weekly uptargets… Thus, the allowed and higher uptargets for this rally remain and stand at 2156 respectively 2160 for April 2015 as well!

Adducing the seasonality aspect that is certainly best-known world-wide: “sell in May and go away”, after the rally high that can be timed for the last April or first May week, technically the market should have to take a brief break (at most 5-7 weeks) in order to test intensely the lower line of the 3rd again.

Mind on this also the current test of this lower line of the 3rd at the present March 2015 low… a short-term falling below the lower line of the 3rd in May and June 2015 down to 2000 is likely to happen! That’s where another rally-leg is expected to start from, being supposed to lead the index up to the 2266, the main target for 2015, till about August/September.

The “Sell in May and go away”-effect occurred last in 2011. May 2012 and May 2013 rather showed tepid corrections. In 2014, May was a strong uptrend month. Since the current bull-market is supposed to top out in summer 2015 before indulging itself in a 6-8 month break, a course such like in 2011 is technically to be ruled out, since at the end of a bull the upforces become stronger and stronger, after all.

Thereby the market has really left two options: Keep on going up unchecked in May, too, as happened in 2014 or by the end of April/beginning of May a mini-correction phase starts again, just like in 2012 + 2013. I think the mini-correction scenario is likely in 2015. The reason is the performance at the NASDAQ-100. This one has its all-time high of the year 2000 at 4816.35 in sight. Currently, the leader is trading at 4458.54, thus being still in distance of an 8.1% from the 2000 ATH. Technically, it should be reached with May 2015, at the latest:

In the currently determining monthly 8 candle up, there is nothing else for the market but to head for/test the ATH soon. February 2015 closed clearly and significantly above the first square line resistance. The February 2015 close was the highest monthly close ever. The February 2015 close activates finally the lower line or the first double arc as the next important uptarget in the monthly time frame!

The first square line is at about 4398, thus corresponding with the highest ever reached monthly close before the February 2015 close (March 2000 closed at 4398.84). Thereby it is now a strong monthly horizontal support as well as an important weekly support on closing base.

Very bullish for the 4820, the uptarget of this move is the comportment of the current March candle. This one tested back successfully the Blue Arc bouncing from there very toughly. This bounce from the Blue Arc is now supposed to continue becoming stronger and stronger until the AHT will be reached at the end of April 2015/beginning of May 2015!

The weekly time frame is indicating now that the current rally should “technically” accelerate extremely now. As early as next week, some enormous upforces may flood the market chasing it up to the ATH therewith. As a reminder the currently dominating 34-37 candle up in the weekly time frame.

Last time I presented this setup together with its important magnets, signals, targets etc. was mid-December 2014. Then I assumed the lower line of the 2nd to be headed for compellingly till February 2015 at 4540:

The February high could not reach the lower line of the 2nd double arc completely coming in at 4483.97. My timing was a little bit too optimistic… Now the present state of the market in this setup:

Click the button below and order the GUNNER24 Trade of the Day - $49.90 US a month.