Ok, you sweet 2, spring a surprise on me

In the mainstream media and websites as well as in the writings of well-known chartists and analysts there is clearly too much blathering, reckoning, peddling about a new strong gold uptrend again… with price target all-time highs or even 5000$. China always buys anyhow, COMEX is empty, JP Morgan long. Trendchanging double bottom in gold and silver, golden cross, the Crimea crisis makes gold draw extremely… etc. We’re in Golden Times. You likely know all that stuff. Lion is roaring again… I might list the reasons, but I don’t really want to.

After scrutinizing intensely palladium last week, today I’d like to analyze both commonly most valuable precious metals, considering critically the swing running from the beginning of 2014 and above all qualifying. Comparisons between the different precious metals makes sense occasionally, sharpens the view, unfolds contexts that some analysts cannot always make public by virtue of their time limits and business models… not talking here about the limited technical tools…

Gold and platinum are subject. I clearly urge caution. When everybody is roaring something has to be wrong, for the crowds are always wrong thus losing money by trading/investing.

On 01/05/2014 for gold the 1322 was worked out as the likely countertrend target. On 02/16 I analyzed that on certain conditions the 1422 might become the maximum countertrend target being reached the 1372 in any case.

By the developments of last week the 1372 is worked off as well as the 1422 activated as the maximum countertrend uptarget. It will be worked off in April.

For a long time we have known that gold is oriented by 50$ increments in its correction. That comes because after the 2011 all-time high at 1522 the first square line support crystallized deriving from there in 50-$-steps all the lower horizontal supports and resistances minded by gold in its correction in the monthly time frame – those are giving the corresponding buy and sell signals. The last time I clearly displayed these 50$ increments that are best tradable in the ruling monthly 4 candle down, was two weeks ago, in the GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue of 03/02/2014:

Last week closed at 1381.80$. Thus a new weekly buy signal is being generated since the monthly 1372 resistance is unequivocally overcome. The 1422 is activated now. In the setup above you see the 1422 residing above the 2nd double arc that is representing mighty resistance in this setup.

With the weekly close at 1381.80$, at the moment gold is trading between the lines of the 2nd and thereby in a strong monthly resistance area. From now on it is becoming difficult and tenacious for gold to keep on rising. All the same the 1422 is going to be reached in April.

And this is where things depend on gold’s performance in April at the 1422. Not before it strongly corrects without falling, remaining for at least 2 months at the expected 1422 swing high and going on rising in May as well, to 1470 for instance, I’ll be convinced that for gold a new strong up-leg has begun that is supposed to reach the all-time high – not before! I continue working on the assumption of a new strong sell-off leg that is likely to lead gold to 1050…

Explanation:

A long, long time ago we used to orient very frequently by this monthly 8 Candle GUNNER24 Up. Lately I utilized it for the forecast of the 2013 correction lows on 06/23/2013:

Since that gold has got over with a long burdensome travel. A week after the publication of the above-chart it already reached the 1172 target region of the correction. Afterwards it rebounde till August 2013 in a countertrend leg, turned then, falling deeply again and reaching a higher low on monthly base on 12/31/2013. It’s the ominous double bottom in gold. From then on a new countertrend move has been going on. Intentionally I still term it like this because first of all gold will have to yield at 1422! Not before gold persistently cracks the 1422 on monthly base upwards till June I, too, will swing into a new bull market! Here’s the actualization of the extremely important monthly 8 candle up. Let’s go into media res:

Very first of all I’d like to put the current upmove since the December lows 2013 in perspective, absolutely neutral and independently…

Yes, I do know the permanent ATH disciples’ argument that an important change in trend is based on doubts and uncertainty, that only in this case an important new trend of an important change in trend might take place… blah.

Yes, a new uptrend to new all-time highs may be on the way having begun at the December 2013 lows. The reason is: The December double bottom occurred exactly at the 1*1 Gann Angle. This one was activated after the break of the 2*1 Gann Angle in May 2013, according to the W.D. Gann Angle rules as main target for the correction. In retrospect it seems logical that it first took a touch with the 1*1 Gann Angle that the entire uptrend since the 2008 lows has been oriented by, to have to lead to a new upwards-energy boost. The first important low in June 2013 that rebounded from the strong support of the 2nd double arc (left blue circle) was not able to do so persistently…

The question I ask myself now is whether the developed up-energy shown now by the 1*1 Gann Angle will be able to overcome upwards the monster resistance of the 3rd double arc. At the moment I think it will NOT! Will it be able to overcome it pretty speedy – i.e. within 6 months or so? NO, NO = double NO!

So far the initial up impulse, in the 4th month now, compared with the 4 previous rebounds recognizable in the correction since September 2011 turns out as the most pathetic as for its range. I.e. so far and even though we assume that it is coming to an end in April 2014 in the 5th month of the impulse at 1422 it will be the most pathetic of all the 5 rebounds of the correction. To revive the bull market definitely it will have to crack the 1422 on monthly base lasting at least 8 months and ending above the 1450.

==> In my opinion the current up-impulse is technically too weak to revive the bull-market persistently being supposed to come to an end in April. Ok, I concede the market maximally one more month of consolidation around the 1400 in May 2014… The 3rd double arc was broken downwards powerfully in May 2013 thus being main resistance for gold. Normally it is strong enough so in this very first approach after its break it cannot be overcome. Technically gold should rebound from it heftily falling down extremely severely in order to reach consecutively perhaps the 1050.

The new initial up impulse is in its 4th month in March 2014. 4 is not a Fibonacci number. That’s why the new impulse has to or should top at the earliest in April. Also in this monthly setup in April the 1422 is situated at an extremely important monthly resistance. The lower line of the 3rd takes its course exactly in April at 1424. In the past, the lower line of the 3rd has always been an important magnet in the monthly time frame. Please mind on this all these green and red (sometimes support, sometimes resistance) circles and ovals.

By the way, also in this setup another important monthly Gann Magnet is derivable that arises from the monthly 4 Candle GUNNER24 Down Setup above: the 1372. In the 8 candle up the 1372 is an important horizontal that springs from the intersection point of the upper line of the 2nd with the beginning of the setup.

We can identify the 1422 in the same time frame in an up as well as in a down setup. In both cases the 1422 is resistance, a mighty resistance, strong enough to finish the new hopes of the gold-bulls abruptly forcing gold newly into a powerful sell-off that may thoroughly work off the 1050.

The 1422 is the critical mark for April. It is likely to be reached. An important March 2014 resistance is at a Resistance Gann Angle and at the 1402. From there, technically gold is supposed to rebound severely in March testing then extensively the 1360-1350. From there the “probable last rise” up to the 1422 is likely to follow. An interim station in April is the 1414, an important magnet that arises from two monthly Gann Angle resistances = strong up magnet.

I believe that each decline that starts from the 1422 will have to close at least the open gap on monthly base at 1322. Again a magnet derivable from the 1522 is playing a part… this test is simply indispensable in merely technical respect. Without this test there can be no new bull market, there can be no substantial long lasting rise! For gold doesn’t let open any gap. Every gap is going to be closed sooner or later, above all a monthly one is, such as in this case. Normally gold even overshoots its open gaps… So any decline starting in April/May is technically supposed to head for the 1300 at least!! In my opinion that’s where the decision will be made in summer 2014 whether the up impulse that started in December 2013 was really the final turn for good. The 1300 will have to hold on monthly base in summer. In that case the approach run to the all-time highs might go on lasting.

If the 1300 falls on weekly base, a new test of the 1*1 Gann Angle in the monthly 8 candle up above will be due! A monthly close below 1200 between June and August 2014 will activate the 1050, the continuously preferred main correction target!

A monthly close above 1460-1470 till May 2014 would allow reaching the all-time high as early as in 2014! Technical such a close could only happen in case of a soon extension of the Crimea crises… Let’s wait and see.

Let’s go now to the cross-check of my gold forecast – platinum in the monthly chart. I haven’t ever yet presented platinum in public. So it’s a premiere! In the monthly time frame there are 2 monthly setups whose signals condition reciprocally. It’s a 1 Candle GUNNER24 Down being traced from the 2008 all-time high and an 8 candle GUNNER24 Up we may apply at the monthly low of 11/2008.

To start with one thing: As well as in the case of silver that is not co-supporting the strong current gold swing – silver has risen by just about a +10.80% in 2014 whereas in a genuine bull-scenario it always performs better than gold – platinum is pointing to the precondition that combined with gold it will have to see lower lows once more in summer 2014 to finish its correction on monthly base. Platinum target is the 1225 till July/August 2014!

In the 1 Candle GUNNER24 Up I’d only like to go into the currently important signals indicating that the 1225 is the target of the correction. The 2008 sell-off came to an end at the 10/2008 low. There, according to the rules, at the 3rd double arc support an 8 months lasting up impulse developed by whose extension the first double arc was tested but could never be overcome persistently. A new decline is the consequence that has not dissolved upwards until today. In April 2013 the lower line of the 2nd was broken downwards within the current decline. It was a monthly sell signal that hasn’t been denied so far causing with a 75% of probability that the support of the 3rd double arc will have to be headed for again. Without a touch with the upper line of the 3rd in correction direction platinum is not really supposed to be able to start its next important bull-leg!

Like gold, platinum is indicting a double bottom that is likely to lead it maximally to the lost motion dotted purple line) of the Resistance Angle. 1541 for April 2014 is the countertrend target! Maybe in April 2014 exactly at the Resistance angle and at 1522 comes the end… Do you notice the nearness to important gold magnets in the monthly time frame?? Especially if you recall that platinum likes to trade 100$-120$/oz above gold over the last years…?? From April/May 2014 on platinum is supposed to fall again to the upper line support of the 3rd at 1225 (August 2014) to deliver a new test of this support. In my opinion, in that case and after a successful rebound from this upper line of the 3rd the next important bull-market up-leg should start. Like in the case of gold also this is valid: If the 1550-1570 and thereby the lost motion of the Resistance Angle is taken upwards, platinum will be in the absolute buy mode again!

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