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Certainly, the last few weeks saw a luscious and stable rally in the EURUSD that last Thursday found their high. But the last two daily candles in the EURUSD signal at least the beginning of the end of trend for some time. Today, I’d like to share with you my present thoughts on the important pair plus suggesting a sell-short idea with narrow stop-loss that looks very profitable.
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The 1:3 Trade: Sell EURUSD at 1.2515
Dear GUNNER24 Traders,
The 1:3 Trade: Sell EURUSD at 1.2515
Our 1:3 trades are A) adjusted to a longer term, having a spacious stop-loss for the development not to be endangered and B) have to show a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.
The following monthly chart of EURUSD shows that the bull market has risen to Big Round 1.25 Gann number resistance level that is also at down trending DECADE RESISTANCE which starts at 2008 alltime-high (ATH):
DECADE RESISTANCE is two times negative tested threshold, so pair is now at third test braking its most important resistance. On Thursday, pair reached the DECADE RESISTANCE upmagnet for the first time in 4 years. Additionally, the Big Round natural 1.25 Gann number resistance was tested on Thursday.
Because the uptrend which began at # 1 // 2017 Low is at month No. 13 Fib number and at week No. 56 (56 - 1 = 55 Fib number) on Thursday time has met price, accordingly a change in trend is imminent. We try to short the possible change in trend.
Very first reaction to combined DECADE, time and Big Round 1.25 resistance magnet was very negative. Pair made blow off top at 1.2538, afterwards closing the day in red at 1.23931. Momentum is in uptrend on this timeframe and still rising, so we have to expect another serious test of combined major 1.25 resistance magnet in course of the next few days. In the short-term, price should be somehow attracted by 1.25 magnet and some volatility and price consolidation/swings may erupt, before pair could drop more significantly!
==> Please place a 1:3-Sell-Short limit order at 1.2515! The Sell-Short limit order is valid until Friday, 2nd of February.
Within weekly chart above, pair has risen to 5th double arc main uptarget the 5 Candle up out of # 1 // 2017 Low forecasted as potential important bull market uptarget.
56 weeks of uptrend. 56th uptrend week pierced into lines of 5th at Thursday blow off top. Thus, also the weekly time frame signals time/price confluence and potential intermediate top in place or very close.
First reaction to potential 5th double arc importance was a very negative one on daily base, thus the future function of the 5th double arc appears confirmed = future resistance in the weekly!
Usually ... since a change of the trend could be imminent ... EURUSD should at least backtest its most important and nearest weekly support within a weekly pullback reaction perhaps lasting 3 to 5 week candles in response to 1.25 January resistance magnet. I have nearest rising weekly support at round about 1.2200-1.2250 for the month of February 2018.
==> Shortterm downtarget is backtest of naturally anchorable Support Angle at 1.2215 in course of February 2018!
Support Angle is influencing market since about May 2017. I have highlighted its changing support and resistance function in the weekly chart with the blue ovals and it may well be that he can lose his actual support function at the next test because a downtrend that wants to start at a DECADE RESISTANCE can turn out pretty hard or deep!
SL for the setup is placed at 1.2605.
Risk = 0.009. Potential reward = 0.03. Risk-reward ratio 0.009/0.03 or 1:3.33
GUNNER24 Trade of the Day orders for 01/26/2018:
Market: EURUSD
Orders: Sell-Limit at 1.2515. Stop-Loss (SL) at 1.2605. Sell-Limit order valid till 02/02/2018. Shortterm downtarget at 1.2215.
Eduard
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Eduard Altmann
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