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Neither of both precious metals is showing any sign of fatigue, no, it’s more: By the breakthrough the important resistances at 1763 and 34.50, respectively, the rally that’s been running since the beginning of the year got into its stride again. If those metals hold out above 1770 and 34.70, respectively, they’ll generate some mighty GUNNER24 Buy Signals on monthly basis.
Monthly GUNNER24 Signals are very rare, and they lead to winner trades of 100%. During the three and a half years while we have published several GUNNER24 Signals for free, in the
stock markets (click here to get to the actual signal and performance survey),
in gold (click here to get to the actual signal and performance survey),
in silver and copper (click here to get to the actual signal and performance survey)
all in all there were only 17 GUNNER24 Entries on monthly basis. All of those 17 were winner trades with an average performance of about +10%. The best performing trade produced a 43.17% plus, the worst produced a 3.03% plus. Especially the gold signals performed exorbitantly well. The average profitability was over +25%!
Gold:
The 1763 are a very important monthly mark. That’s where the center of the just passed square is situated. By breaking through the 1763 resistance on daily basis last Wednesday, gold has got the opportunity now to head newly for the 4th double arc until April in case of a February close above 1770 (I think in that case, considering the lost motion, the 1763 would be broken definitely). Target of the possible long signal would be the lower line of the 4th double arc at 1845. The monthly break of the 1770 would be the last unambiguous confirmation that gold is running up until April, maybe until May, as it did last year.
But we shouldn’t expect that the 4th double arc is going to be reached quickly and without a fight. Especially the 1800-1805 area will offer a very severe resistance! From there – seen on weekly basis – an extended counter move (lasting 2-3 weeks) is threatening that may easily lead back to 1725 or even to the 1700 again.
At 1804.40 the important November 2011 high is lying. It will take new higher highs than those 1804.40 to let fresh money flow newly into the market for only those higher highs will make the chart-purists (which are the institutional) realize that gold is in a longterm upwards trend again. Thereby the bear market highs would be overcome “officially”, thus the upwards trend would be “officially” confirmed, and such a confirmation would consequently lead to new all-time highs!
In silver the monthly buy entry is at a February close of more than 34.70:
February is expected to close above the extremely important resistance of the 2nd double arc in the actual monthly 21 Candle GUNNER24 Up since in view of the actual momentum it will be very difficult to press the market below the 34.70 again during the last 3 days, I think. At the same time, therewith the long lasting resistance diagonal is overcome that is lying at 34.20 for February 2012. So the way until April 2012 is supposed to be free until the center of the just passed square. That’s where the minimum target for this long entry is lying: 39.60.
If silver just rudimentarily rises in price and time as it did in the lapse between January and April 2011 the 3rd double arc at 42 will be the target for April 2012. If the price increase of last year is reflected exactly the 50 will be the target again…
But like in gold there are many, many powerful resistances lying over the actual price that technically make us expect 39.60-42.00 only. At this time last year the only important resistance over the market was lying at 50$ (1980 resistance) because from 22$ silver was situated in uncharted territory as it were.
But now it takes just a look at the chart above, and you’ll see that there are really just red things to be made out – precisely the resistances that have developed from out the move of the last months…
At the next horizontal resistance that is lying at the intersection of the upper line of the 2nd double arc with the beginning of the setup (36.28) or at the latest by reaching the important monthly resistance Gann Angle at 36.70 a correction lasting 2-3 week is expected to start which may lead to the gap close at 33.25 in the extreme case.
The 36.28 resistance is corresponding with the 1800-1805 resistance area in gold. As you can see, because of the possible up and down targets being a long way away from each other the volatility is supposed to increase. It may be a bit fierce, like it uses to be when in silver – a pretty small and thin market – the dance between bulls and bears goes off.
It will be important for the next weeks not to let you be bowled out of your longterm longs in case of lower severe corrections on daily and weekly basis. Just like last year at the same time, we’ll have to join the target to exploit optimally the possible “trade of the year” putting some more silver on in case of the quite probable violent corrections. We’ll accumulate constantly in little tranches as soon as silver settles down a 2%, a 3% or even a 5% decline on daily basis!
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Let’s go now to the currently a little boring stock markets. Whereas in the precious metals the momentum is increasing day by day, the uptrends in the equities seem to exhaust or to pause now. The threat of a strong correction is growing. That’s hardly surprising as the rally is going to be in its sixth month. It’s true they haven’t seen their final targets but there isn’t much upwards potential left:
At the moment the S&P 500 is fighting with the 1370 being the 2011 year-high – purple horizontal. It’s more a merely psychological fight. The important highs of the past are always playthings of the momentum traders. The 1370 will be taken on daily basis or on the basis of 1-2 weeks, simply because there are no monthly GUNNER24 Resistances between the 1370 and the magnet of the lower line of the 3rd double arc in the 3 Candle GUNNER24 Up to be made out. During the May 2011 year-high the price still met a resistance diagonal forcing the market into the following 6 month correction. Now the index is attracted by the powerful magnet of the 3rd double arc.
Longs will have to be covered by reaching the lower line of the 3rd – in March at 1393. Like always – then we’ll have to observe how the market performs at the resistance before a new investment decision will be made – no matter if long or short!
In the daily setup of the S&P 500 we recognize that the support Gann Angle is setting the rate of increase of the trend. Day by day the index is orienting itself by the angle joining it upwards. On Friday we saw new year-highs. Target for our long engagement keeps being the next visible resistance – the upper line of the just passed square – at 1389. We recognize the congruence with the monthly target. The same target in different time frames makes this target become an important one. In case of the important targets we’ve always got to reckon with a turn. So in any case we’ll cover the daily long-position by reaching the 1389. Market if touched.
Also the NASDAQ-100 is slowly reaching its target area now. We’ve been prognosticating the 2610 as to be the target for this rally for a long time – for the first time we did in the issue of January 8, 2012:
With 2609.45, the leader of this rally reached the monthly buy target approximately on Friday. As analyzed as early as last week we had the intention to cover the monthly position taken on January 31, 2012 in case of a February close above 2610. But watch out! We’ll cover market if touched at 2610 already. Simultaneously we do an about-turn to the shorter-term weekly time frame to catch some more precise and more acute signals – what absolutely makes sense in case of a coming correction…
In this weekly 5 Candle GUNNER24 Up Setup of the NASDAQ-100 we see that the 2610 are not only an important monthly resistance, but also in the weekly time frame there is a threat of adversity. Well, it’s the same target in two different time frames…
The upper line of the 2nd has effect on the market. We recognize that simply because the market closed exactly upon it. This precise approach to the upper line and the fact that the last 3 weeks closed within the 2nd double arc suggest that the 2nd is supposed to be broken upwards, towards the trend. Of course, the question is always when… The confirmation of a definite break of a double arc is always provided by the closing price above this double arc.
In case of a closing price above 2612 next week the second will be definitely broken target with a 70% of probability would be the 3rd double arc then. The target would be reached in June 2012 at 2760.
But since the 2610 represents the monthly resistance and since from next week the market might begin to follow the weekly 2nd double arc above downwards we’ll let the market decide on the next signal. For security reasons we’ll cover the monthly long position at 2610 MIT. And if the market doesn’t begin to correct at 2610 but end next week above 2612 correspondingly at the week close we’ll simply enter a weekly long position which is not that longterm oriented. But if the market corrects now following the 2nd downwards we’ll always buy the definite break of this 2nd, no matter whether that happens the week after next or in 2 or 3 weeks. Target in that case will always be the 3rd double arc, just the time and price targets will change.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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