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Oh Boy, what a rollercoaster ride for investors and traders the past few days and now additionally the AAPL stock is bitching too, which I always keep an eye on to possibly discover really important developments.
With the recent stock market panic selling due to increasing fears of the new Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, it is once again evident that these 2 now flattening and at the same time slightly diverging rails are still at work on the weekly chart of the e-mini NASDAQ-100 continuous futures contract (NQ #):
The rising bent red-dotted-resistance as well as the rising bent green-dotted main support determine the angle of ascent and the individual main waves of the bull market since the last bear market low of # 1 // March 2020.
The early-October low was the last successful & renewed 100% accurate backtest of the green-dotted support rail, which is quite obviously radiating support energy on a yearly basis and forced the market into a next important higher bull market low there and then.
The last test of the Rounded Bull Market Support triggered an 8-Fib number week rally cycle, which traded shortly above the Rounded Bull Market Resistance and finally exhausted at 16767.50 pts alltime-high. Since then, NQ # has corrected swift and hard and is now trading once again in its extremely well-defined upward oriented, curved channel.
==> A quick look on the bearish weekly Slow Stokes and little bit of logic is enough to strongly suspect that the NQ # is now again on the move for the next backtest of its Rounded Bull Market Support rail. Such somehow obvious test of 2020 to 2021 bull market main support could be done/completed at or towards the end of 5-week candle (Fib number) downcycle.
The Rounded Bull Market Support is for the third-next week candle at pretty much 14890 index points. Some other important future supports existing near the Rounded Bull Market Support is the well-confirmed 15100 pts horizontal and of course the „round“ 15000 pts W.D. Gann support number (-horizontal).
The probability that the Rounded Bull Market Support will be defended again at the next test and that further higher bull market highs will follow is of course much higher than vice versa. The trend is alwas your friend!
But one thing must always be clear to all stock market bulls. IF this Rounded Bull Market Support ever falters, you can kiss the ENTIRE stock market bull market good-bye!
So much for the current state and the probable short-term development until the end of the year ...
The odd that the 16767.50 pts alltime-high will be the final high of 2021 is at about 98% and the probably that the 16767.50 pts alltime-high will be the starting point of a new bear market cycle which has to correct the 2020 low-2021 top upleg by at least -20% has risen to a not so bad 30%.
The main reason for this unusual high probability is that the bull market what started at # 1 // March 2020 coronavirus panic low with the candle of the alltime-high (ATH) was in its 88th week candle of life. Because this top in the course of the bull market week # 88 is obviously influenced by the very high and thus often MAJOR important Fib number of the 89.
The TIME FACTOR may have forced the market into an extremely important medium-term high or even the final high of this bull run.
This applies even more when we count the bull market on monthly base:
The November 2021 candle is the 21st month candle of the bull market that started at # 1 // March 2020 coronavirus panic lows.
And yeah baby, 21 is precisely the major important 21 Fibonacci number. Always threatening trend turn number!
==> The NASDAQ-100 printed a nearly perfect # 89-weeks/# 21-months Fib number combo bull market high. As the S&P 500 also shows exactly the same 89-weeks/21-months Fib number combo bull market top, everything looks even more threatening for the bulls.
OR in very clear words: The current NQ # November 2021 top at 16767.50 pts has the theoretical energy regarding time to become an intermediate bull market high, followed by a longer (15-21 weeks??!!) correction wave, and may be even represents the final top of the entire bull market!
But as mentioned above, normally, i.e. with a probability of about 70%, the NQ # next should find very strong yearly support cushion between 15110 and 14890 points and then should continue its bull market advance. The monthly 8 Fib number Candle GUNNER24 Up above totally supports this thesis!
Please watch, that this NQ # bull markt run on the monthly chart delivered some monthly closings far, far above natural resistance range of the 1st double arc. Because of this bullish state the activated monthly uptarget is the lower line of 2nd double arc (not shown) and will be reached with a likelihood of 70% in current trend direction!
The importance = existance of the 1st double arc was confirmed in the past and most importantly is well-confirmed main support range. At the early-October 2021 lows – highlighted with the green-support oval – , the lower line of 1st double arc morphed to strong monthly support rail. These important higher bull market lows at same time found weekly & yearly Rounded Bull Market Support and monthly GUNNER24 Arc Support. The early-October lows found combined weekly & monthly & yearly support magnet!
And well, it now seems to be the case that the market has to test back this 1st double arc main support range within weeks and in further course of December. It could test back the 15110 pts natural support horizontal out of the highest price of upper line of 1st double arc. Or it might test back the upper line of 1st double arc support which for the current December 2021 candle runs at 14980 pts. Or/and may decline into weekly Rounded Bottom Main support which for end of December 2021 is at the 14890 pts ...
So please pay attention to the market`s behaviour at the 15110 to 14890 pts main support nest for your future investment decisions, because there is also an Apple PROBLEM!
The last few days AAPL stock did nothing but made new lifetime-highs. It was the safest of the safe havens. It was timber within this „Bearish Omicron Panic Cycle“.
That`s why I somehow always had this GUNNER24 AAPL main uptarget in the back of my mind:
The 170$. The 170$ we had calculated – click here to re-read the free GUNNER24 Newsletter 11/21/2021 - as the Apple stock main uptarget of this year. Then, I additionally forecasted that the above monthly lower line of 3rd at 170.00$ WILL be reached until December 31 and also proclaimed the thesis that the stock markets will be bullishly supported until AAPL shares have finally worked off their 170$-173$ year 2021 main uptarget range.
And then, as if by magnetic magic, this 170$ was finally worked off at Wednesday (12/01/2021) highs. At a time when most other stock market leaders were already in dire straits. After the 170$ work off on Wednesday AAPL shares started a rather hard and impulsive looking downward wave into close, by this producing an ugly looking bearish reversal candle on the daily chart.
I find it worrying that AAPL shares only briefly tested the 170$ yearly main threshold, only to drop quite strong immediately afterwards. That`s why there could be a lot of negative things to come in the next few days and weeks.
For AAPL, the Tech Stocks in particular and maybe also the entire stock market.
„As goes Apple, so goes the market“, is one of the most important rules in trading and in investing. The negative way in which the AAPL shares reacted to this 170$ GUNNER24 Main Resistance uptarget now makes me a little bis nervous about the future short- and medium-term prospects of the stock market as a whole.
The completion of the 2021 main target PRECISELY on the very first trading day of December - which is a target month in terms of the time factor - may not be a coincidence and may have triggered a more important time signal. Possibly a trend reversal or a stronger sell signal on the monthly chart!
Now that the annual AAPL uptarget has been worked off, it is possible or allowed that AAPL may need/want to consolidate or correct for a few months (2, 3, even 5?).
Hmm, please take a last look on the monthly AAPL chart! AAPL shares may now need to backtest the future monthly 2nd double arc support environment at 130$-120$ yearly main support environment. This quite bearish scenario or option, which of course still needs a lot of evidence, would`t be good for the equity markets at all. Worldwide.
Be prepared!
Eduard Altmann
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