Gold outlook for January 2016

From the bear market low in gold in the year 1999 to the all-time high (ATH) of the year 2011, we count 13 years of rising. With 2016, gold is in the 5th correction year of the last bull-run. 5 is Fibonacci number = turning number, so technically, for 2016 we can expect the final low in the current bear market.

2010 was the last crystal clear uptrend year in gold, the year opening being situated near the year low and the closing near the year high. 2011, the year of the ATH finished rather weak. It closed about in the middle of the yearly trading range.

Likewise, 2012 closed roughly in the middle of its trading range. 2012 was the first year of the correction in the secular bull market. 2013 and 2015 were downtrend years, the year openings being near the respective year highs and the year closings near the year lows. 2014 performed negatively on yearly base, yet without being a strong downtrend year. It was a trend-continuation year.

To the space from 2011 till 2015 pertains that the November–December period is actually always dominated by remarkable weakness and to 2012-2015 that October till December are/were weak..

However, 2011 + 2013 + 2014 – after the respective important bear market lows also in November/December – significant countertrend moves started at a time, lasting 10 weeks once, then 12 weeks and 12 weeks again.

In 2012, the period of weakness that had begun in October continued till the June low of the year 2013. The lows reached in November + December 2012 were without significance.

Sind the history never repeats but frequently rhymes, preparing this issue I effected a fractal analysis of the November + December months 2011-2014. So I detected this conspicuity: 2015 rhymes with the performance of the year 2013 in an extremely significant way.

If this condition persists, correspondingly a last shake out should take place soon – in the last trading week of the year 2015, afterwards starting swiftly another significant several week upleg.

In the chart, I positioned the year 2013 above and the current year 2015 below, visualizing the conspicuities of both years with red respectively green dotted verticals. Red verticals mark important low spaces. The green verticals illustrate high-phases in the daily swing.

Comparing the present course with 2013, so far we realize 6 coinciding turns suiting well each other. Yet really interesting is the conspicuity that the lowest daily close of the year 2015 is virtually in a tie to the equivalent one of the year 2013. 12/17/2015 vs. 12/19/2013.

If the fractals keep on rhyming, in the last trading week 2015 once again a lower low – final low of the year 2015 then – would have to come about! Perhaps on December 28, 29 it would, if gold is willing to keep on orienting itself nearly by 2013, followed by a “much-anticipated” rebound that is supposed to gather pace most accurately with the beginning of the New Year. How long and how high such a bounce can go is shown in the following valid GUNNER24 Down Setup in the daily time frame.

The GUNNER24 Down Setup measures exactly 35 days from the October 2015 high till the current bear low at 1045.40. Thereby, the bear low was reached exactly 34 days after the last significant high. Fib number!! Indeed it’s a rather high Fib number. Technically, it’s extremely seldom that the markets turn in such a long-lasting swing. Things like that impact the signaling resp. the possible targets and working-off targets resulting from this high Fib number!

For decades, I have observed that the 1st double arcs (natural downtargets) of the initial impulses that end at or near the 34 resp. 55 extremely seldom happen to be worked off SWIFTLY resp. QUICKLY! …(technically, 89 swings are never be found in the higher time frames – I cannot remember to have seen one ever, at least not in indexes or important markets like commodities. Yet in case of stocks, something like that does exist…)

IN THE VAST MAJORITY OF CASES, 34 + 55 initial impulses either mark their respective final lows at the low of the 34th/55th day or they reach ONLY the first square line AS MAXIMUM EXTENSION of this first initial impulse then. Hence, the markets turn either A) upwards at once from the Blue Arc support or B) upwards after working off the first square line support magnet.

I think gold is going to reach/work off the first square line at the year-end 2015 or punctually with the beginning of the year 2016, so to speak in the last shake out… then starting to rebound!

For the Thursday candle – the day after the interest rate decision – closed narrowly below the Blue Arc support, alas not clearly and thereby not finally confirmed, and no lower bear low was either reached. I presume however – even though Friday succeeded in escaping closing above the Blue Arc – that this lowest daily close in 2015 compellingly demands the 1037 first square line to be worked off.

The current swing is clearly orienting itself by the 2*1 Angle. For as many as a few weeks, gold has been oscillating around it. What I think is this: Since gold won’t be able to come loose from the 2*1 Angle, this current ruling resistance magnet will escort resp. force gold into the doubtless necessary test of the first square line.

In the chart above, I entered the most important nearest supports resp. support magnets there are in the monthly and yearly time frames.

First, it’s matter of the combined monthly and yearly GUNNER24 Horizontal Support at 1048 = 1073 – 25. The Thursday low is at 1046.80…

… As well as the 1040.40 horizontal down magnet on monthly and yearly base that results from the gap between the close of October 2009 and open of November 2009. As explained in the free GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 11/29/2105 „ Ticktack, ticktack, here comes the next important Gold-Low“, at this price in the month of December 2015 also the important 1*2 Gann Support Angle intersects that originates from the crash low of the year 2008. Together, these supports are forming a strong support magnet and thereby strong force of attraction to the price for December 2015.

Together with the 1037 first square line, the 1040.40 is forming boundless strong support on monthly and yearly base. Technically, gold is supposed to rebound from there upwards most heftily.

==> to reach subsequently the 1*1 Resistance Angle at 1090, at least in January 2016.

It’s much more likely however that the next snapback rally will head for the 1123 GUNNER24 Resistance Horizontal strongly and quickly (end of January/early February).

==> 1123 is the most important and strongest horizontal resistance for gold in 2016, as derived in free GUNNER24 Forecasts, issue 08/02/2015: