End of 2014 as expected in view of gold

Welcome to the last edition of free GUNNER24 Forecasts in 2014, a year affected by some fiscal and political turbulences.

Generally speaking in 2014 gold made an outperformance, again. Despite the heavily cap by the FED, the bashing against gold, the hype at the stock market everywhere, the spreading deflation and in face of a strong downtrend at US$-base, in 2014 the Safe Haven made it again to gain some in mostly every currency, after a disappointing 2013. Sufficiently often there has been a clear outperformance respectively the official inflation rates in 2014, too.

Those facts and the overall performance of the past years are astonishing. The gold-bulls should be admonished by that to keep a consistent and permanent physical stacking. Here, there is the annual change in % oft the most important key currencies from 2005 to 2013 and including the performance of 2014 till past Friday:

Source: goldprice.org

Even in view of US$ base there is a notable plus, if we consider the performance of exactly a year till past Friday.

Besides you should just click through goldprice.org. On the right hand side you will see „WORLD GOLD PRICES“ to check further currencies. You might wonder, as well as I did, but maybe you will consider this quotation of Voltaire as a truth:

„Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.“

==> During 2014 it became clear to all of us, that the world is going to face deflation for years. There is and there will be no point in printing money.

==> What this actually means for us, as being part of the common folk, investors and traders is: We are going to need to expand our physical gold holdings, as usual. Gold remains to be our insurance against wealth transfer or the „death“ of currencies, which is more and more actively and obviously planned by bankers, state executives, elites and government.

There is a worldwide failure of states and unions including their currencies. Actually every other economic area besides the USA turns to US stocks, US bonds and to the US$ respectively the petrodollar system. In 2015 there will be some bancruptcies of states caused by the enormous state-indebtedness. Probably Greece, perhaps Venezuela and some more emerging countries, which depend on oil or other resources. Woe betide there is a quarter, in which China just reports a growth of 5 or 6% in 2015. This would feed the worldwide deflation spiral.

The fact that gold in 2014 could end with a small plus even measured in US$ is mind-blowing. The FED did her best to push and stabilize their own stock markets, to make commodities cheaper, including gold, in order to strengthen the USA+US$ facing the financial war against China and Russia, especially the possible hot war against Russia.

Nevertheless there will be a +/- in view of the US$ in 2014. Regarding all the hype, all the efforts and strains made by the monetary authorities and despite the rest oft he world enforcedly had to invest in american stocks the S&P500 Index just had a plusperformance of 12% in 2014 (Friday).

Obviously in 2015 the capital of the rest of the world will has to be invested in the USA, because a lot of other currencies are heading towards ZERO due to many different reasons. One thing for sure: Gold is and gold will be a respectabe alternative to the USA and their dollar, while talking about safe and value-preserving investments. Maybe in 2015 even the dollar will be affected, finally it is just a paper, as well and maybe gold can make a turn of its downtrend. This for sure, it would be a great relief for US-gold-bulls.

2012/2013/2014 year end pattern:

On the whole, the current month of December is performing quite parallel to December of 2012 and 2013. Correspondingly we can and may conclude the devolution of the remaining trading days of the year.

A first temporarily low is achieved around the 5-7th of December. In 2012 and 2013 – see chart above - the low ocurred on the 7th respectively the 6th. In 2014 it was the 5th. This low is followed by a 3-day (2013+2014) respectively 4-day (2012) upswing leading to the absolutely December high, ocurring around the 9-12th of December. In 2012 it was the 12th, in 2013 the 10th and in 2014 the 9th, when the monthly high was reached. In 2012 (6 days) and in 2013 (7 days) the high peak was followed by a 2nd temporarily low of the month for gold.

In 2012 and 2013 the 2nd temporarily low of the month was reached on 20th respectively the 19th of December. From this 2nd temporarily lows a little „christmas-ralley“ started before gold hackly declined for 2-3 days. The last day of the year (chart above: 12/31/2013) respectively the first day of the new year (chart above: 01/04/2013) a significantly year end low gets marked.

December of 2011 was quite similiar to December 2012+2013 according the important year end low. Back then - 12/29/2011 - the important December-low developed which was followed by a 250$-rally topping in 03/2012.